What's next for Baylor? How athletic director Mack Rhoades' absence complicates Dave Aranda's future in Waco

Baylor's bizarre season took another strange turn on Thursday as athletic director Mack Rhoades took a personal leave of absence. Sources confirmed to CBS Sports that Rhoades is under investigation for a second time after the athletic department received new allegations on Monday. 

There are no details available on the investigation, except for that it does not involve Title IX issues or interaction with a player. The allegations are separate from the previous investigation into his alleged accosting of tight end Michael Trigg, which occurred in September. 

Regardless, the new developments only adds another layer of complication to the status of Baylor football coach Dave Aranda. 

Lackluster season

The sixth-year coach came into the year with Big 12 championship aspirations after ending last season on a six-game regular season winning streak. The Bears returned top quarterback Sawyer Robertson and running back Bryson Washington, both of whom ranked among the best in the Big 12 last season. Instead, Baylor has been wildly disappointing. 

The Bears sit at 5-4 with difficult games against No. 13 Utah, Arizona and Houston remaining. If Baylor finishes with a losing record, it will be four such seasons in six years under Aranda. That would be the worst run since 2009, dating back to the Guy Morriss era and darkest on-field days of Baylor football. 

The status has left Aranda on one of the hottest seats in college football. In fact, CBS Sports experts rated him as having the third-hottest seat in the sport at a 4.5 out of 5.0 in their midseason check in. Throwing the athletic director situation into turmoil makes everything more difficult. 

Aranda is well-liked in the athletic department, but the program has plateaued under his watch. If Aranda was fired, he would become the 10th Power Four coach fired in 2025. 

After another lackluster start, it's harder than ever to make excuses for Baylor's Dave Aranda

Shehan Jeyarajah

Tied at the hip

Rhoades was hired in 2016, on the heels of Baylor's Title IX scandal under former head coach Art Briles. He hired football coach Matt Rhule, who built a Big 12 finalist. Two years later, Aranda led the Bears to the best season in program history, including a Big 12 championship. Under his watch, Baylor also won national titles in men's and women's basketball, joining UConn as the only school to accomplish both in the past decade.

Rhoades invested heavily in Aranda after the 2021 season, giving him a contract extending through 2029. Even when the Bears fell to 3-9 in 2023, Rhoades doubled down on his support of Aranda, revamping NIL and pushing him to invest in the transfer portal. 

Early results were solid. Aranda's team finished the 2024 season with eight wins. The 2026 recruiting class is on track to be one of the best in program history. The Bears rank No. 26 in the Top247 rankings, with three players ranked in the top 100 of the Top247. 

But now, the program is tanking once again and fans are revolting. A tight win against Kansas State featured a miserable attendance of 35,596, the worst in the history of McLane Stadium. Rhoades signed a major contract extension in 2022, framed as a retirement deal. But after the slippage and new issues, his status becomes much more complicated. 

Who's in charge?

As of publication, Rhoades has not been fired as athletic director. A university spokesman told KWTX that his absence is expected to be four weeks. COO Jovan Overshown and CFO Cody Hall are serving as interim co-athletic directors at this time. If Rhoades is out of the picture, it makes the decision far more complicated. 

The timing of Rhoades' leave is a complicated one as the university prepares to make a decision on Aranda. Baylor's final game is on Nov. 29. While Aranda's contract is not available due to being at a private institution, many coaching contracts have buyouts that drop on Dec. 1. 

But even if a decision maker on campus decides to fire Aranda, the search will come with additional complications. Can the university get a new athletic director in the door before a decision is made? Would a high-level athletic director be interested in coming when they can't pick their new coach? Who would spearhead the decision on campus: the interim ADs, university president Linda Livingstone or the university's large board of regents?

On Saturday, Baylor football faces one of its biggest tests in years as No. 13 Utah comes to town. The Bears are 7.5-point underdogs in the matchup, and are likely to lose yet another home game by multiple scores. With all the chaos circling around the athletic department, it could prove a rock-bottom moment for the Aranda era.