B1G Time: Is Iowa a real CFP contender, or just a ghost in the cornfield? Nebraska left to wonder 'what if'

I don't know what to make of Iowa this season, but Saturday's upcoming game should teach us plenty. The Hawkeyes welcome No. 3 Oregon for the biggest game in Kinnick Stadium since welcoming No. 4 Michigan back in October of 2022. Michigan was ranked No. 4 at the time, and Iowa was off to a 3-1 start, looking to shock the world and climb into the poll themselves.

They didn't. Michigan stymied Iowa's rushing attack and didn't make the kinds of mistakes on offense the Hawkeyes typically feast on. The Wolverines won 27-14 and kicked off a three-game losing streak for the Hawkeyes that put a damper on their season the rest of the way.

As we head into this week's matchup, while the voters of the AP Top 25 might not have noticed, the Hawkeyes are off to a 4-1 start to Big Ten play and have some folks dreaming of a possible College Football Playoff bid. The kind of dream that will seem far more realistic if the Hawkeyes shock the world and pull off the upset.

But can they? If you're skeptical, September's game against Indiana suggests you should perhaps consider it a bit longer. The Hawkeyes, as they are wont to do, made life miserable for the Hoosiers -- far more miserable than anybody else has made them. Indiana has scored at least 50 points in five of its nine games this year, and put up 63 against Illinois in their prior performance. At Kinnick, they managed 20 points in what was their worst offensive performance of the season, and that includes a road trip to Oregon against the same Ducks team the Hawkeyes will face this week.

While that performance was noteworthy, it's also fair to mention that, compared to the rest of their Big Ten contenders, Iowa's had an easier path to this point.

Yes, they've won three straight since, and are 4-1 in conference play, but the four wins have come against Rutgers, Wisconsin, Penn State and Minnesota. Those four are a combined 5-17 in conference play, and Minnesota's responsible for four of those wins. They also got Penn State in its first game after firing James Franklin and losing Drew Allar for the year, and that proved to be a 25-24 nailbiter.

Using ESPN's FPI metric -- which is not perfect, but can be informative -- the Hawkeyes have played the 43rd most difficult schedule in the country, but that places them 14th out of the Big Ten's 18 teams. That's not entirely out of line with what all the teams at the top of the Big Ten standings have faced, however.

Things drastically change when you look at what the Hawkeyes have left compared to everyone else. This is a back-loaded schedule, which plays a huge role in why it's so difficult to figure out what this team is right now.

Are the Hawkeyes truly back to their old ways of having a stifling, havoc-creating defense, paired with elite special teams? The same kind of Complementary Football Meat Grinder that's claimed so many victories over the decades under Kirk Ferentz. There are certainly signs of it. Iowa is once again a threat to score while its offense is on the sideline. They also continue to force turnovers on defense that put their offense -- which is still not an explosive unit, but has morphed into some kind of Iowa version of the triple option that is entertaining to watch -- into advantageous positions. The Hawkeyes have proven very effective at finishing drives by getting into the end zone when given the opportunity to do so.

While there's the argument to be made that the schedule has played a role in these numbers, there's a flip side that works in Iowa's favor. The fact that Iowa has been able to do this all year gives Iowa the confidence in itself to believe it can do so against the teams remaining on its schedule.

Whether or not it can will determine how much longer the dream of a College Football Playoff run lives on in Iowa City.

A season derailed

Injuries are a part of football, and always will be. And it will always suck when one injury has a significant enough impact to affect a team's entire season.

I believe we saw one Saturday night in Lincoln, when Dylan Raiola had his leg rolled up on while being tackled. My initial hope -- which feels like a strange word in this situation -- was that it would be a sprained ankle, and one that wouldn't cause him to miss too much time, if any.

Instead, it's a broken fibula that has ended Raiola's season, and likely Nebraska's hopes of having a memorable year.

It already tanked Nebraska's playoff hopes. The Cornhuskers led USC 14-6 at the time of the injury, and were outscored 15-3 from that point on, as it became painfully clear in a hurry the Nebraska offense wouldn't find much success with true freshman TJ Lateef.

Now what looked like a season that would be a significant step forward under Matt Rhule will finish with more of a "what if?" vibe. The silver lining is that Nebraska and Rhule have already agreed to a contract extension, and Raiola will be back for 2026. While you'd prefer he gets the experience and development that comes from playing in big games down the stretch this year, the Huskers should enter 2026 with the hopes of competing at the top of the league again.

Infamy for Penn State

Penn State was hoping to make history this season, but the only history the Nittany Lions have made has been the kind you hope to forget. With their 38-14 loss to Ohio State on Saturday, Penn State did something no team has ever done before in the long, long history of college football.

The loss dropped the Lions to 3-5 on the season. It's the worst record ever for a a team that began the season ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the AP Top 25 after eight games. Their five-game losing streak is also the longest losing streak an AP Preseason Top-2 team has ever had.

The Nittany Lions get Indiana this weekend, which means there's a high likelihood they'll make even more history. I'd say basketball season has begun, but, well, most college basketball projection sites have Penn State finishing at the bottom of the league!

How's Gavin McKenna looking?

Jeremiah Smith remains incredible

That incredible touchdown grab by Jeremiah Smith was the 24th receiving touchdown of his career. Why does that matter? Well, first of all, Smith is only in his second season and has played in 24 games.

Furthermore, it's the most touchdowns an Ohio State receiver has ever caught in their first two seasons, and Ohio State may have eight more games to play this year. And think of the great receivers the Buckeyes have had!

Outside Columbus, Smith's 24 touchdowns through two years are the most any receiver has had since Ja'Marr Chase had 23 with LSU in 2018 and 2019, and the most a Big Ten player since Charles Rogers caught 23 for Michigan State in 2001-02. Rogers finished the 2002 season with 27 touchdowns to his name, so Jeremiah still has some work to do to pass him.

Give him another game or two to get there.

The Golden Age of Indiana football

So Curt Cignetti is one win away from being the coach at Indiana in its two winningest seasons. He's in his second season. He's already ninth all-time in wins at Indiana, just six behind Kevin Wilson who was there for 73 games.

Going with my gut

Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers -- just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Any game not included is due to there not being a posted line at time of publishing.

No. 6 Oregon at Iowa: This will come down to how well Iowa's defense can limit the explosiveness of Oregon's offense. I wrote last week about how there are some cracks starting to show in the Oregon offense. Was this week's bye just what they needed to get things in order? Even if Iowa slows them down, can the Hawkeyes put enough points on the board to stay in it? My gut thinks they can. We've established in this column how difficult it can be for teams making the long road trips in conference play, and Kinnick is a very difficult place to play. Honestly, it's like a slightly larger Autzen Stadium, where the fans are yelling and they're right on top of you. The Pick: Iowa +5.5

Northwestern at No. 20 USC (Friday) -- USC -14.5

No. 2 Indiana at Penn State -- Indiana -14.5
No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue -- Ohio State -29.5
Maryland at Rutgers -- Rutgers +1.5
No. 24 Washington at Wisconsin -- Washington -11.5
Nebraska at UCLA -- UCLA -2.5

Last Week: 5-1
Season: 46-36