B1G Time: Big Ten coaches enter 2025 season brimming with confidence, but that optimism may come at a price

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Last month during Big Ten Media Days in Las Vegas, I spent one of my evenings in town at a poker table. I enjoyed a lot of time playing in my early 20s, but it had been a while since I'd sat down at an actual table to play with people I could see.

I was surprised at how easy it was to get back in the rhythm of reading people and their mannerisms. Reading tells is like riding a bike, except instead of a helmet, you're protected by a healthy distrust of your fellow humans. Granted, the folks at the table with me weren't the best players I'd ever come across, which helped, but a lot of the old tricks still applied. After a few hours, I'd made a tidy profit and headed back to my hotel room to prepare for another day of interviewing Big Ten coaches.

What does any of this have to do with Big Ten football?

Well, coaches aren't all that different from poker players. They have tells. Last year in Indianapolis, I had the chance to talk to plenty of coaches, and they all said positive things about their teams, but I could tell that a few were saying what they felt they needed to say. They weren't saying what they truly felt. It's not an uncommon practice for these events. Rare is the coach who will come out and say, "Actually, we suck, and I'm just hoping we can win a couple of games." Talking season is a time for hope. This year, it was much of the same. Every single Big Ten coach I talked to during my week in Vegas was positive about their team, but there was one huge difference.

They all believed it.

From what I could tell, the confidence brimming in their answers was genuine. That doesn't mean they'll all be proven right, but the belief is telling all the same. The 2025 season has the potential to be an incredible one in the Big Ten because everybody feels confident, and there are good reasons for that confidence.

Sure, not all of these coaches look at their team and truly feel they can win the Big Ten, but they all think they can be this year's Indiana. There are questions at the top of the league, and when that happens, it creates wiggle room for everybody.

Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon are your favorites to win the league, but both Ohio State and Oregon are replacing a bevy of pivotal players from last year's squads. Penn State returns a ton of talent and experience but also lost its best player on defense (Abdul Carter) as well as on offense (Tyler Warren). Oh, and there's that whole "never beats elite teams" thing they're dealing with.

Michigan is two years off a national title and has a five-star quarterback, which certainly helps seeing as last year's biggest problem for Michigan was the play under center.

Indiana made the freaking College Football Playoff and thinks it can do so again. Illinois won 10 games, returns the majority of its snaps from last year and thinks it can do it again.

Everybody else says, "If Indiana can make the playoff, and Illinois can win 10 games, why the hell can't we?" OK, so maybe Maryland and Purdue don't feel that way -- this is when I tell you I did not speak to either Barry Odom or Mike Locksley -- but who knows? It's hard to imagine 2025 being worse for either one!

For fans, this is fantastic. For those of us making predictions? Absolute nightmare fuel. If you've seen our expert picks for the Big Ten, I need you to know that my confidence level in my predicted order of finish is low. Like Purdue's point differential in 2024 low.

If I were sitting at a poker table with Big Ten coaches right now, I'd fold.

Big Ten expert picks 2025: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

Tom Fornelli

The optimism comes with a potential price

Parity is wonderful for fans of teams who aren't generally considered the elite, and it's great for television networks because it leads to exciting games and potentially more "meaning" for them later in the season. However, there are downsides to it as well.

Matter of fact, the Big Ten has so many teams that feel capable of competing for a playoff at-large spot this season could end up being what costs the Big Ten an at-large spot. You don't have to look any further than what happened in the SEC last season.

The SEC has never been shy about telling you how good it is, and for good reason. There are a lot of trophies in the trophy case that back it up. However, for most of the league's dominant run, there were one or two dominant teams in the league in a given season. Alabama was very often one of them, but when Nick Saban retired, it led to a power vacuum in the league -- one that saw plenty of teams willing to fill it last year.

The result was a slightly weaker top tier and a stronger second tier, which led to cannibalization in conference play. Three losses proved to be one too many to the College Football Playoff, leaving Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday.

I can see a similar situation taking place in the Big Ten this year. The transfer portal and NIL have been a driving factor in the improvements we've seen in the second tier of the Big Ten. They certainly helped Indiana and Illinois reach that tier last year, and as we've discussed, plenty of Big Ten programs think they fit that bill this year. And they do.

Combine that with the very real possibility that the gap between the top tier and the second tier shrinks a bit this season, and the chances of the Big Ten only getting three teams in isn't crazy. For example, if you accept the idea that Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon all get in, who is the school you think is a sure thing to grab that fourth spot?

Look at the playoff odds at FanDuel Sportsbook right now. Michigan is listed at +210 but is starting a true freshman at quarterback. USC is at +410 and Nebraska is at +710, with Illinois and Indiana between. Maybe that looks like a large gap to you, but USC's implied odds are 19.6% to Nebraska's 12.3%. That leaves a hell of a lot of wiggle room and suggests nobody should be relied upon.

Which leads to my next question ...

The SEC went to nine games ... so now what?

The SEC announced its move to a nine-game conference schedule last week, which was long overdue and great news for fans. In this era of super-sized conferences, leagues should do everything they can to maintain relationships between the schools sharing a league. Expanding conference games is a great way to do that.

It was also a welcome change to the Big Ten. One of the other things Big Ten coaches all shared during media days last month was a desire to see the SEC adopt a nine-game slate. Whenever the College Football Playoff and format changes were discussed with a Big Ten coach, they expressed dislike for the 5+11 model, citing the SEC's eight conference games compared to their nine.

Well, now they're playing nine and will continue their policy of every school scheduling at least one nonconference game against a Power Four opponent. That's something the Big Ten should require of its schools, as well.

So what does this mean for the Big Ten's playoff ideas? Plenty of folks theorized that the Big Ten was holding onto the idea of four auto-bids for the Big Ten and the SEC as a negotiating tactic to get the SEC to go to nine games. Now that it has, will commissioner Tony Petitti suddenly become a fan of the 5+11 model?

Will it at least get him to move on from the preposterous 28-team idea?

The timing of the decision will matter. There's no immediate rush to determine a new format for the playoff, if one is needed at all. However, it's also possible that if the scenario we discussed above happens and the Big Ten only gets three teams into the 2025 field, the league digs its heels in further about auto bids.

Going with my gut

Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers -- just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly.

No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State: Feels like I just saw this game not too long ago! It's an incredible way to start the season for both teams, and it's far and away the most interesting Week 1 matchup in the Big Ten. I mean, if we're being honest with ourselves, the Big Ten's Week 1 slate is very underwhelming, and surprisingly so. Any way, both these teams are facing a lot of the same questions, and it could go either way, but I'm taking the defending champs at home.

Ohio at Rutgers (Thursday) -- Rutgers -15.5
Buffalo at Minnesota (Thursday) -- Minnesota -18.5
Nebraska at Cincinnati (Thursday) -- Cincinnati +6.5
Miami (OH) at Wisconsin (Thursday) -- Wisconsin -17.5
Western Michigan at Michigan State (Friday) -- Michigan State -20.5
Western Illinois at No. 12 Illinois (Friday) -- Western Illinois +45.5
FAU at Maryland -- Maryland -14.5
Ball State at Purdue -- Purdue -17.5
Northwestern at Tulane -- Northwestern +6
Old Dominion at No. 20 Indiana -- Indiana -22.5
Nevada at No. 2 Penn State -- Nevada +44.5
Montana State at No. 7 Oregon -- Oregon -27.5
Albany at Iowa -- Albany +37.5
New Mexico at No. 14 Michigan -- New Mexico +35.5
Missouri State at USC -- USC -34.5
Utah at UCLA -- UCLA +6.5
Colorado State at Washington -- Washington -22.5