Arkansas State vs. Missouri State prediction, odds: 2025 Xbox Bowl picks, best bets by proven model

Bowl season continues Thursday with a college football standalone matchup between the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Missouri State Bears in the 2025 Xbox Bowl. This is the inaugural edition of this bowl, which replaced the Bahamas Bowl on the postseason schedule. The Red Wolves got their sixth win by upsetting Appalachian State in the regular-season finale. Missouri State went 7-5 thanks in large part to a five-game winning streak in the middle of the season. 

Kickoff from Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas, is at 9 p.m. ET. The Red Wolves are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Arkansas State vs. Missouri State odds, while the over/under is 54.5. Before making any Missouri State vs. Arkansas State picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your $5+ bet wins:

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is profitable on its top-rated money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. Anybody following those college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Arkansas State vs. Missouri State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Missouri State vs. Arkansas State:

New users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $250 in bonus bets at FanDuel if your $5 bet wins. 

How to make Arkansas State vs. Missouri State picks

After simulating this matchup 10,000 times, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (54.5 points). This total has dropped five points since the opener, creating value on the Over.

Three straight Missouri State games have cleared the total, while the same is true of the past two Arkansas State games. There has been limited roster news for both teams, clearing the way for most of the key skill players to play, which should be a boost for both offenses. SportsLine's model is projecting 57 combined points. 

The model also says one side of the spread has all of the value. You can see the model's pick at SportsLine.  

So who wins Missouri State vs. Arkansas State, and which side of the spread has all of the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's up on its top-ranked money-line picks, and find out.