Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction, pick, odds, spread: Crimson Tide looks to keep rolling against rival Vols
SEC rivals Alabama and Tennessee square off as top-15 foes yet again on Saturday
By
David Cobb
•
3 min read
As Alabama reeled off 15 straight victories in the series under Nick Saban between 2007 and 2021, the Crimson Tide's annual rivalry with Tennessee began to lose some of its luster. The Volunteers were routinely non-competitive in the game known historically as the "Third Saturday in October," and the matchup waned in its national significance.
But when the Volunteers knocked off Saban and the Tide in a top-10 battle in 2022, it rejuvenated the historic series, which will be renewed again Saturday in a high-stakes situation. No. 11 Tennessee has won two of the past three in the rivalry, but the Volunteers haven't won inside Bryant-Denny Stadium since 2003.
No. 6 Alabama will be looking to extend its home winning streak over the Volunteers to 11 games and to stay among the dwindling group of teams that are unbeaten in SEC play. The Crimson Tide (5-1, 3-0 SEC) have rattled off five straight wins since a Week 1 loss at Florida State but have yet to face an offense quite this electric.
Tennessee (5-1, 2-1) ranks No. 4 nationally in total offense at 527.8 yards per game and has scored 30-plus points in its first six games for just the second time in program history. The Third Saturday in October officially has its significance back as these schools meet as top-15 foes for the third time in the past four seasons.
Where to watch Alabama vs. Tennessee live
Date: Saturday, Oct. 18 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium -- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (Start watching, save $20!)
Alabama vs. Tennessee: Need to know
Epic quarterback battle: This game is a battle between two of the best passers not only in the SEC but nationally. Tennessee's Joey Aguilar leads the league in passing yards at 1,680 with Alabama's Ty Simpson just behind him at 1,678. Simpson leads the conference in touchdown passes with 16 with Aguilar in second at 14. Both will also take, and hit, their share of intermediate and downfield shots. Where Simpson has a bit of separation is that he's been intercepted only once this season, whereas Aguilar has been picked off five times.
Pass protection issues: Part of what has made Simpson so impressive during the season's first half is that he's regularly been under pressure. Alabama is 91st nationally in sacks allowed after giving up four in each of its last two games. The Crimson Tide have allowed pressure on 29.3% of dropbacks, which ranks 61st nationally. Tennessee's defense isn't a juggernaut like last season, but the Vols do get after opposing quarterbacks. They rank No. 2 nationally in sacks with 26. Protecting Simpson will be a challenge for Bama.
Time of possession battle: Tennessee ranks No. 17 nationally in turnovers gained with 11, but the Crimson Tide have coughed up the football only twice this season. If Alabama doesn't give the ball away, it will force the Tennessee defense to come up with stops against an Alabama offense that converts on better than 50% of its third downs. The Crimson Tide rank No. 7 nationally in time of possession, whereas the Volunteers are No. 124 in the same category. Bama has done a masterful job of bleeding the clock and wearing opponents down during its 3-0 start to league play. Tennessee's up-tempo offensive style could play right into the hands of the Crimson Tide.
Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction, picks
Alabama's Kalen DeBoer and Tennessee's Josh Heupel are two of the best offensive minds in the head coaching ranks, and they each have high-caliber quarterbacks. But the Crimson Tide have chosen to play a clock-bleeding style so far during conference action, which has depressed the amount of scoring in Bama games. Tennessee likes to go fast, but the Volunteers may have to slow things down to get their defense some rest. If not, Bama could dominate time of possession and slowly wear the Volunteers down. Barring an unforeseen spat of turnovers from a sure-handed Alabama team, this game could have fewer possessions -- and fewer points -- than you might think. Pick: Under 58.5
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