Alabama vs. Missouri prediction, pick, odds, spread: Crimson Tide meet unbeaten Tigers in pivotal SEC clash
Missouri hosts Alabama in a top-15 showdown as the Tigers try to move up the SEC hierarchy
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3 min read
Missouri has been solid in recent history but is still trying to beat the blue bloods in the mighty SEC. Alabama comes to town as a slight favorite in the biggest showdown in the conference in Week 7.
Mizzou is an incredible 25-5 in its last 30 games, but most of those losses have come against the best of the best in the SEC (Alabama, Georgia, LSU), which has kept the Tigers from reaching that next level of contenders. The Tigers won 10 games last season but were still blanked 34-0 by the Tide, showing just how far they were from being among the SEC's elite.
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The No. 14 Tigers (5-0, 1-0 SEC) have started hot, again, but against a relatively easy schedule. The first five games ranked 80th nationally in strength, but the final seven games include four ranked opponents, making it the 12th-hardest remaining schedule in the land.
Meanwhile, No. 8 Alabama (4-1, 2-0) is seeking a 3-0 start in the SEC with all wins coming against AP Top 25 teams, which would be a first for the tradition-rich university. The Tide has rebounded nicely from their season-opening loss at Florida State. Mizzou is seeking a third straight home win against a top 25 team for the first time since 1973.
Follow along with live updates, highlights and analysis from Alabama vs. Missouri on Saturday.
Where to watch Alabama vs. Missouri live
Date: Saturday, Oct. 11 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Faurot Field -- Columbia, Missouri
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Alabama vs. Missouri: Need to know
Big Game DeBoer: Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer is incredible in ranked-on-ranked matchups. He's 13-2 in those games, the best winning percentage (.867) for any head coach in AP poll history. He's also 17-3 overall against top 25 teams, the second-most wins by an active head coach since 2021, ranking second behind Georgia's Kirby Smart (22), who he defeated earlier this season in Athens.
The Ahmad Hardy Problem: Mizzou's Ahmad Hardy has emerged as the nation's leading running back, running for 730 yards and nine touchdowns through five games. He's run for 100-plus yards in seven straight games, the longest active streak in the FBS dating back to his playing days at ULM. Remember, Alabama's identity has changed quite a bit from the Nick Saban era. The Tide have been out-rushed in half their games under DeBoer, compared to only 19.6% of their games in the Saban era. Alabama is 4-5 under DeBoer in those games and Saban was 31-15. Somehow, Alabama has won both of its games against top 25 teams this season despite allowing 7 yards per rush.
Streaks made to be broken: Missouri has won 15 straight games at home, the second-longest active streak in the FBS. Alabama has defeated Mizzou six straight times. The Tigers last defeated the Tide in 1975.
Alabama vs. Missouri prediction, picks
Alabama has struggled to score more than four touchdowns in its games against mid- to upper-tier power programs, which is fine, particularly with the defense playing so much better of late. Missouri loves to run the ball, ranking third nationally, and leads the nation in time of possession. The Tigers scored 29 in their only SEC game this season. The Tide ranks No. 1 in turnover margin, which could make for a lower-scoring game for the explosive Tigers. Picking a winner is difficult, especially with a 3.5-point spread in favor of Alabama, so we'll go with the point total (51.5) and side with the teams sliding just under. Pick: 51.5u
SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 7 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see all the picks, all from the model that is 38-25 since the beginning of last season on top-rated money-line and over/under picks.
