Alabama vs. Missouri prediction, odds, line, start time: 2025 college football Week 7 picks by proven model

The 14th-ranked Missouri Tigers will get their first true test of the 2025 college football season when they host the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. Mizzou (5-0, 1-0 SEC) has yet to face a ranked team and has played just two Power Conference opponents, as the Tigers defeated UMass, 42-6, in their previous game before a bye last week. Meanwhile, Alabama (4-1, 2-0) has looked like a typical Tide team since losing its opener to Florida State. The Tide are coming off back-to-back wins over ranked SEC teams in Vanderbilt and Georgia. Alabama lists star receiver Ryan Williams as probable.

Kickoff is at noon ET from Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Mo. The Crimson Tide are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Missouri vs. Alabama odds, after opening as 6.5-point favorites. The over/under for total points scored is 52.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Alabama vs. Missouri picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and is a profitable 38-25 combined on money-line and over/under college football picks since the beginning of 2024. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Missouri vs. Alabama. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Alabama vs. Mizzou:

Why Alabama can cover

Bama has, for the most part, taken care of business versus ranked foes under Kalen DeBoer. The Tide are 5-1 against the spread against ranked teams since the start of last season, which includes a 34-0 drubbing of then-No. 21 Missouri last season. That result was simply par for the course for Alabama in recent meetings with Missouri as the Crimson Tide have won six straight matchups, all by at least 18 points.

Quarterback Ty Simpson is now one of the Heisman favorites and deservedly so. He has twice as many rushing touchdowns (two) as interceptions (one), to go along with 11 passing scores and a 70.3% completion rate. Alabama's passing game is only matched by its pass defense, as the Tide have kept all five opponents under 200 passing yards and have given up just three touchdowns thru the air all year. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why Missouri can cover

Getting points at home won't faze Missouri as the team is 9-3 against the spread as a home underdog under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. Mizzou also has the rest advantage after not playing last week, and the Tigers have covered in four of their last five games following a bye. Meanwhile, the Tide haven't exactly lived up to the billing when favored on the road as they've covered in just two of their last six games as an away favorite.

Missouri has won eight straight games dating back to last season, and the offense has been the catalyst for its perfect record this year. After leading the Sun Belt in both rushing yards and touchdowns last year, Ahmad Hardy leads all of FBS with 730 rushing yards this season. The Tigers lead the conference in completion percentage, rank third in yards per rush and are fundamentally sound, averaging the second-fewest penalties and the third-fewest turnovers per game. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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How to make Alabama vs. Missouri picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Missouri vs. Alabama 10,000 times and is going Over on the total, projecting 53 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Alabama vs. Missouri, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Missouri vs. Alabama spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.