Alabama vs. LSU prediction, odds, line, time: Week 11 college football picks by proven model

The LSU Tigers take on the fourth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in a key SEC matchup on Saturday night. LSU is coming off a 49-25 loss to Texas A&M on Oct. 25, while Alabama defeated South Carolina 29-22 that same day. The Tigers (5-3, 2-3 SEC), who are 10th in the conference, are 1-2 on the road this year. The Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-0 SEC), who are tied for first in the league, have won seven consecutive games. They are 4-0 at home.

Kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., is at 7:30 p.m. ET. Alabama leads the all-time series 57-27-5, including a 15-10 edge in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide are 10.5-point favorites in the latest LSU vs. Alabama odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 49.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Alabama vs. LSU picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on LSU vs. Alabama. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Alabama vs. LSU:

Why Alabama can cover

Junior quarterback Ty Simpson has been on a roll. In eight games this season, he has completed 177 of 261 passes (67.8%) for 2,184 yards and 20 touchdowns with just one interception for a rating of 162.6. He has also rushed for 79 yards and two scores. In a 38-14 win over Wisconsin on Sept. 13, he completed 24 of 29 passes for 382 yards and four touchdowns. In a 30-14 win over Vanderbilt, he completed 23 of 31 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.

His top target has been senior wide receiver Germie Bernard. He has had five receptions in four of the last five games, including five catches for 54 yards and one touchdown in the win over South Carolina. He had five catches for 82 yards and a score against Vanderbilt. In eight games, he has 38 receptions for 526 yards (13.8 average) and six touchdowns. He has also rushed 15 times for 94 yards and two touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why LSU can cover

Senior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been the key to the Tigers' success. In eight starts, he has completed 176 of 267 passes (65.9%) for 1,806 yards and 12 touchdowns with five interceptions. He has also rushed for one score. In a 20-10 win over South Carolina, he completed 20 of 33 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns with two picks. He also rushed four times for 30 yards, including a long of 21.

Among the many leaders on offense is sophomore tight end Trey'Dez Green. In just four games, he has 21 receptions for 264 yards and four touchdowns, including one per game. He was dominant in a 20-10 win over South Carolina on Oct. 11, catching eight passes for 119 yards and one touchdown. He caught six passes for 54 yards and a score in the loss to Texas A&M. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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How to make LSU vs. Alabama picks

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total, projecting 53 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Alabama vs. LSU, and which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the LSU vs. Alabama spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.