Every offseason, the Heisman conversation begins with the usual suspects -- star quarterbacks from championship contenders, household names from the SEC and Big Ten and players already plastered across preseason watch lists. History, however, tells us that the race rarely unfolds as expected.
A breakout season, surprise playoff run or unexpected rise to national prominence can quickly transform a long shot into a legitimate contender. Just ask the players who entered previous seasons as afterthoughts before forcing their way into New York by November.
This year's crop of Heisman dark horses features a mix of established veterans, emerging stars and a few under-the-radar talents capable of producing career-defining campaigns. All have one thing in common -- the talent and opportunity to outperform expectations and become college football's next unlikely Heisman challenger.
Five of the last 10 Heisman winners entered the season with preseason odds of 35/1 or longer. In other words, there's a 50-50 chance this year's winner comes from a group of longshots few people are discussing this summer.
Odds via Fanduel
Heisman history
Year | Winner | Preseason odds |
2025 | Fernando Mendoza, Indiana | 60/1 |
2024 | Travis Hunter, Colorado | 35/1 |
2023 | Jayden Daniels, LSU | 10/1 |
2022 | 8/1 | |
2021 | 10/1 | |
2020 | DeVonta Smith, Alabama | 60/1 |
2019 | Joe Burrow, LSU | 40/1 |
2018 | Kyler Murray, Oklahoma | 20/1 |
2017 | Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma | 7/1 |
2016 | Lamar Jackson, Louisville | 50/1 |
Quarterback + elite team formula
More often than not, the Heisman has been an individual award wrapped inside a team accomplishment. Fair or not, the formula rarely changes. If you're a quarterback putting up elite numbers while your team is firmly in the College Football Playoff race, you're immediately at the front of the line. Voters want signature moments, nationally relevant games and a player whose performance directly impacts championship aspirations.
When a quarterback becomes the face of a playoff contender, individual greatness and team success intersect. Historically, that's the sweet spot where most Heisman campaigns are won. The following Heisman odds are direct from FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 18:
Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama
Heisman odds: +3500
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer hasn't picked a starting quarterback yet, and he says the competition between Russell and Mack could extend deep into camp.
If Russell wins the job and Alabama becomes a national title contender, he'll immediately enter the spotlight. Russell's ceiling might be the highest in the room, and if he gets enough opportunities to prove it, don't be surprised if his name surfaces in New York discussions by season's end.
Highly regarded within coaching circles, the former Elite 11 MVP is Alabama's most decorated quarterback prospect since Bryce Young. Russell has always possessed the traits Heisman voters notice.
Malachi Toney, WR, Miami
Heisman odds: +3000
After the season Toney produced as a true freshman, it's somewhat surprising his name isn't mentioned more prominently in early Heisman conversations.
The Miami star was one of college football's most electric playmakers a year ago, routinely creating game-changing moments while helping power an explosive offense.
Wide receivers need historic production and a national spotlight to garner Heisman attention, but Toney has the profile to do exactly that. He's a dynamic route runner, dangerous after the catch and the type of volume receiver capable of producing massive numbers with Darian Mensah now running the show in Miami.
If Miami meets expectations this fall, Toney's Heisman odds could shift in a hurry.
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina
Heisman odds: +3500
Think of it this way -- you're getting a former Heisman contender from the SEC's top tier of quarterback talent at a discounted price.
The physical tools have never been in question. At 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, Sellers is one of the SEC's most imposing dual-threat quarterbacks and already has amassed nearly 5,000 yards passing and 1,000 rushing in his career. What makes this season different is the infrastructure around him and a system designed to maximize his strengths.
South Carolina made one of the offseason's most intriguing hires by bringing in offensive coordinator Kendal Briles, a play-caller with a long track record of producing explosive offenses and maximizing quarterback talent. Briles has already indicated the offense will be built around Sellers' strengths rather than forcing him into a rigid scheme, which should create more downfield opportunities and designed runs.
Just as important, the Gamecocks addressed a major weakness -- inconsistency along the offensive front. South Carolina struggled in pass protection during 2025, but Shane Beamer responded with a major overhaul that included new offensive line coach Randy Clements and several experienced transfers.
Heisman campaigns often come down to timing and team success. Sellers already has the name recognition and NFL Draft buzz. If Briles' offense takes off and South Carolina emerges as a contender, voters will take notice.
Byrum Brown, QB, Auburn
Heisman odds: +5500
If first-year coach Alex Golesh builds Auburn into an immediate contender, Brown has the talent to crash the Heisman conversation.
The connection between Brown and Golesh is a major reason why. Brown flourished in Golesh's system at USF, accounting for 42 total touchdowns and more than 4,100 yards of offense while becoming one of the nation's most productive dual-threat quarterbacks.
Brown's ability to stress opponents as both a passer and runner gives Auburn an offensive ceiling it has lacked in recent seasons.
Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU
Heisman odds: +6500
Bachmeier isn't appearing on many Heisman shortlists, but that could change quickly if BYU picks up where it left off last year.
The Cougars have legitimate Big 12 championship aspirations and one of the conference's most dynamic quarterbacks under center. Bachmeier threw for more than 3,000 yards, accounted for 26 total touchdowns and led BYU to a 12-win season while earning Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors.
Bachmeier is not simply a quarterback who can escape pressure -- he's a legitimate rushing threat who stresses defenses on every snap.
Kevin Jennings, QB, SMU
Heisman odds: +10000
Jennings has led SMU to sustained success while producing numbers that compare favorably to many quarterbacks generating far more offseason buzz. He enters the season with more than 7,700 career passing yards, 55 touchdown passes and a CFP start on his résumé.
Perception is what's holding him back. SMU doesn't receive the same weekly spotlight as programs in the SEC or Big Ten, and Jennings is often overlooked despite consistently delivering.
If the Mustangs contend for another ACC title and CFP berth, Jennings has the experience, production and leadership to force his way into the Heisman conversation.
