South Carolina v Texas A&M
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Fans won't know the SEC Championship Game participants won't be decided until the final weekend of the regular season, but the race is down to four teams after Week 12. No. 5 Georgia is the only team finished with SEC play following Saturday night's win over Texas, but the Bulldogs still need help to reach the title game.

No. 3 Texas A&M, the league's only unbeaten team, is one win away from its first SEC Championship appearance. Alabama appears to control its own destiny despite a loss to Oklahoma, but a multi-team tiebreaker could keep the Crimson Tide home even with a win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

Despite Alabama's head-to-head victory over Georgia in September, the SEC's tiebreaker policy would nullify it in the event of a three-team tie that includes Ole Miss. Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss did not all play each other this season, and no team went 0-2 or 2-0 within that group.

The conference would then turn to a strength-of-schedule metric to determine which team advances. Three remaining SEC games -- Florida vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky and Arkansas vs. Missouri -- could determine who holds the SOS edge for the final spot.

If Texas A&M and Alabama meet in the title game, the Aggies would lock in a top-four seed and an opening-round bye in the College Football Playoff. A 13-0 finish could even vault them past top-ranked Ohio State.

If Alabama loses to Texas A&M and finishes 10-3, Georgia could claim the SEC's second top-four seed. Ole Miss is a long shot to reach the championship game. The Rebels are favored against Mississippi State, but they would also need upsets from Auburn and Texas during rivalry weekend -- a steep ask.

SEC tiebreakers explained

The following procedures will be used, in order, to determine that game's entries:

  • A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams 
  • B. Record versus all common conference opponents among the tied teams 
  • C. Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among the tied teams 
  • D. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams 
  • E. Capped relative total scoring margin (see Appendix A) per SportSource Analytics versus all conference opponents among the tied teams
  • F. Random draw of the tied teams

If a tiebreaker produces standings with two teams tied for first place in league play, they are both selected for the championship game. To decide the seeding of the two teams, they will progress through the two-team tiebreaker procedures, which determines the home and away designation for the SEC Championship Game.

In the event of a two-team tie for second place, the SEC will use the following procedure:

  • A. Head-to-head competition among the two tied teams 
  • B. Record versus all common conference opponents among the two tied teams 
  • C. Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent, proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams 
  • D. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams 
  • E. Capped relative total scoring margin per SportSource Analytics versus all conference opponents among the tied teams 
  • F. Random draw of the tied teams

If there's a three-team tie for first place, those aforementioned steps will be used in descending order until two teams who stand alone are determined.

Texas A&M (10-0, 7-0)

The Aggies survived a major scare last week against South Carolina thanks to an epic second-half comeback. Now they have a clear path to the SEC title game with a win over rival Texas. The scenario will sound familiar: Texas A&M was in a similar spot last year before a loss to the Longhorns knocked them out of the SEC Championship picture. The Aggies have already exorcised many of the program's demons over the past few weeks, but one huge hurdle still remains.  

  • Beat Texas OR
  • Auburn beats Alabama, Mississippi State beats Ole Miss

Alabama (8-2, 6-1)

Oklahoma snapped Alabama's eight-game winning streak and handed the Crimson Tide their first SEC loss last week, but Alabama still has a strong shot at the SEC title game. The Tide need a win in the Iron Bowl and an upset in another key rivalry next weekend -- either Texas over Texas A&M or Mississippi State over Ole Miss -- to clinch a spot outright.

  • Beat Auburn, Texas beats Texas A&M OR 
  • Beat Auburn, Mississippi State beats Ole Miss OR 
  • Beat Auburn; Win three-way tie with Ole Miss/Georgia based on SEC opponent winning percentage

Georgia (9-1, 7-1)

As last week's dominant win over Texas showed, the Bulldogs are rounding into a team nobody wants to face down the stretch. They'll need plenty of help to reach the SEC title game, but missing out could be a blessing in disguise. If Georgia ends up on the outside looking in, it could still earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. 

  • Auburn beats Alabama OR
  • Texas beats Texas A&M OR
  • Win three-way tie with Alabama/Ole Miss based on SEC opponent winning percentage

Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1)

Ole Miss still has the Egg Bowl left and an outside shot at playing for an SEC title. However, the Rebels need a lot of help. 

  • Beat Mississippi State, Texas beats Texas A&M, Auburn beats Alabama
  • Beat Mississippi State; win three-way tie with Georgia/Alabama based on SEC opponent winning percentage