2025 SEC Championship Game scenarios: Paths for Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss and more contenders

College Football Playoff expansion has brought enhanced interest to conference championship races down the stretch. And in the SEC, there are still a half-dozen teams mathematically alive to play the first weekend of December.

If anything goes awry over the next several weeks for unbeaten Texas A&M or one-loss Alabama, all bets are off with how the playoff selection committee will view this conference during final deliberations. 

Saturday's seismic matchups pitting No. 11 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Alabama and No. 10 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia, among others, will provide a glimpse into how this race will be decided over the final stretch.

We've scribbled out all SEC Championship Game scenarios below, along with how each result could play into the playoff picture.

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Brad Crawford

Texas A&M (9-0, 6-0)

Despite being the SEC's lone remaining unbeaten, Texas A&M still needs to put its best foot forward by beating the South Carolina this weekend and finishing its unblemished regular season with a victory over Texas later this month. Lose either of their final two league contests and the situation's sticky for Mike Elko's team.

• If the Aggies beat South Carolina and Texas, they're in the SEC Championship Game.
• If the Aggies beat South Carolina and lose to Texas, they're only in the SEC Championship Game if Ole Miss loses to Florida or Mississippi State, Georgia beats Texas and Auburn beats Alabama.
• If the Aggies lose to South Carolina and beat Texas, they're only in the SEC Championship Game if Ole Miss loses to Florida or Mississippi State, Georgia beats Texas and Auburn beats Alabama. That would create a three-team tie at 7-1 between Texas A&M, Alabama and Georgia with the Bulldogs and Aggies getting the nod.
• If the Aggies lose to South Carolina and Texas, they'll await their first-round playoff fate as one of the league's at-large selections at 10-2 overall.

Alabama (8-1, 6-0) 

Kalen DeBoer's squad sits in prime position unless the bottom falls out from here. Saturday's showdown with the Oklahoma will be Alabama's fifth conference game this season against a ranked opponent, most in the country across the Power Four ranks among playoff contenders.

• If the Crimson Tide beat Oklahoma and Auburn, they're in the SEC Championship Game.
• If the Crimson Tide lose to Oklahoma and beat Auburn, they're only in the SEC Championship Game if Texas loses to Georgia or Texas A&M by virtue of tiebreakers over Georgia (H2H) and Ole Miss (common opponents). 
• If the Crimson Tide beat Oklahoma and lose to Auburn, they're only in the SEC Championship Game if Georgia beats Texas by virtue of tiebreakers over Georgia (H2H) and Ole Miss (conference opponents winning percentage). 
• If the Crimson Tide lose to Oklahoma and Auburn, they'll likely be outside of the final CFP bracket at 9-3 overall.

Georgia (8-1, 6-1)

Saturday's game against the Longhorns is the Bulldogs' final SEC game. They're going to need immense help with a win to appear in Atlanta, but the more likely scenario is a potential first-round playoff bye. More on that in a bit.

• If the Bulldogs beat Texas, they're only in the SEC Championship Game if Alabama loses its two remaining SEC contests OR Texas A&M splits its remaining SEC matchups with South Carolina and Texas. 
• If the Bulldogs beat Texas, they finish 7-1 in league play and are all but assured the No. 5 seed in the playoff with remaining wins over Charlotte and Georgia Tech if the rest of the SEC goes chalk.
• If the Bulldogs lose to Texas, Georgia's going to need wins over the 49ers and Yellow Jackets to assure itself opening-round home playoff game.

Ole Miss (9-1, 5-1)

Too much has to go in the Rebels' favor to play in Atlanta, but at this point, finishing 11-1 and getting extra rest ahead of first round of the playoffs might be Lane Kiffin's preference anyway. One more victory and Ole Miss locks in the program's first playoff appearance in school history.

• If the Rebels beat Florida and Mississippi State, they're only in the SEC Championship Game if Alabama wins out and Texas beats Georgia and Texas A&M OR if Oklahoma beats Alabama and Texas beats Georgia and Texas A&M. That would leave four teams tied at 7-1 in conference with Ole Miss and Alabama moving on to Atlanta by virtue of tiebreakers.
  
• If Georgia beats Texas, the Rebels are out of the SEC Championship Game race regardless of their final two games.
  
• If the Rebels split Florida and Mississippi State, they're in danger of losing what appears to be a lock for a first-round home playoff game.
  

Texas (7-2, 4-1)

The good news for the Longhorns? They're very much in the SEC Championship Game and playoff discussion despite two losses up to this point. The reason being two of their final three games are against top-5 opponents.

• If the Longhorns beat Georgia, Arkansas and Texas A&M, they're in the SEC Championship Game if Oklahoma wins out and Ole Miss loses one of its two remaining games to Florida or Mississippi State. That would leave Texas, Alabama and Texas A&M as the three 7-1 teams with the Longhorns and Crimson Tide getting the nod.
  
• If the Longhorns beat Georgia, Arkansas and Texas A&M, they're in the SEC Championship Game if Oklahoma wins out and Auburn beats Alabama. That would leave Texas A&M and Texas as the only two 7-1 teams in league play.
  
• If the Longhorns beat Georgia, Arkansas and Texas A&M, they're in the SEC Championship Game if Oklahoma beats Missouri and LSU and Ole Miss loses one of its two remaining games.
  
• If the Longhorns lose to Georgia, they're out of the SEC Championship Game mix.
• If the Longhorns lose to Georgia, then beat Arkansas and Texas A&M, they're likely in the playoff at 9-3 overall as the last at-large selection given the late-season boost with the win over the Aggies.
• If the Longhorns beat Georgia and Arkansas and lose to Texas A&M, there's going to be a logjam of teams in the at-large conversation.

Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2)

One of seven SEC teams that could finish with 10 or more wins, all the Sooners can do is keep it up and wait and see. Saturday's showdown at Alabama is a playoff elimination game for Brent Venables' team.

• If the Sooners beat Alabama, Missouri and LSU, they're only in the SEC Championship Game if the following happens -- Texas A&M loses to South Carolina and Texas; Texas loses to Georgia and Arkansas; Mississippi State beats Ole Miss and Auburn upsets Alabama in the finale. That chaotic scenario would leave Georgia at 7-1 overall and Oklahoma at 6-2 getting the nod over Alabama and Texas A&M by virtue of tiebreakers.

The SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia is set for Saturday, Dec. 6.