2025 Heisman Trophy odds, Week 3 outlook: John Mateer joins frontrunners, upsets hurt DJ Lagway, Sam Leavitt
Plus, a dark horse contender emerges from the Group of Six ranks

The early stages of the college football season allow for ample movement in the Heisman Trophy race, even in weeks that are light on marquee matchups. The lone top-25 showdown of Week 2 pitted a couple of hopefuls against one another, and it was Oklahoma's John Mateer that rose to the occasion in the win over Michigan. The prized transfer is now squarely among the favorites entering Week 3.
On the flip side, half of the battle in the Heisman race is taking care of business against inferior competition, and two strong preseason contenders failed to do so last week. DJ Lagway and Sam Leavitt suffered the consequences of Florida's shocking loss to South Florida and of Arizona State's road defeat at Mississippi State as their odds of winning the award plummeted.
This week offers more in the way of ranked matchups, which by default adds more Heisman juice to the slate. A look beyond the top 25 also reveals a couple of contests with implications for dark-horse contenders.
With two weeks of action in the books, here is a snapshot of the Heisman Trophy picture. Odds below per FanDuel Sportsbook.
Heisman Trophy odds entering Week 3
- QB Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (+900)
- QB Carson Beck, Miami (+1000)
- QB John Mateer, Oklahoma (+1000)
- QB Dante Moore, Oregon (+1100)
- QB Arch Manning, Texas (+1300)
- QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+1400)
- QB LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (+1800)
- QB Drew Allar, Penn State (+1800)
- WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+1800)
- QB Devon Dampier, Utah (+1800)
- QB Cade Klubnik, Clemson (+2000)
- QB Jackson Arnold, Auburn (+2000)
- QB Julian Sayin, Ohio State (+2000)
- QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (+2500)
- QB Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (+2500)
Stock up: John Mateer enters top tier, Byrum Brown raises eyebrows
Mateer has been as advertised through two games at Oklahoma, and he passed his first real test. His play suffered last year at Washington State when the Cougars stepped up in competition level, but he appeared more comfortable last week against the vaunted Michigan defense and scored three times -- twice on the ground and once with his arm. This Sooners offense looks miles better than the one Brent Venables put on the field a year ago, and it all starts with Mateer and the familiar face at offensive coordinator in Ben Arbuckle, who developed his quarterback at Washington State, brought him to Norman and continues to help him shine.
Known more for his dynamic playmaking ability as a dual-threat weapon than for his pure arm talent, Mateer has been a pleasant surprise as a passer thus far. He leads all SEC quarterbacks with 662 yards, and a sizable 270-yard chunk of that total came against a stiff Wolverines defense.
Most sportsbooks slotted Mateer into second on their Heisman odds boards, but DraftKings is particularly bullish on the Oklahoma standout and made him the betting favorite entering Week 3.
Those more interested in tracking a dark-horse contender than riding with a favorite like Mateer should keep their eyes on USF's Byrum Brown. He emerged two years ago as one of the Group of Six's top rushing quarterbacks but missed half of last season, and he re-emerged on the Heisman watch list in Week 2 with the biggest win of his career. Brown and the Bulls toppled Florida in a stunning upset in The Swamp, establishing USF as the top College Football Playoff contender outside the Power Four.
History is not on Brown's side as no Group of Six player has won the Heisman since 1990. But Ashton Jeanty narrowly missed the nod in a second-place finish last year, so voters may not be closed-minded if Brown is still in the mix at the end of the season.

Stock down: DJ Lagway, Sam Leavitt plummet after upsets
For Brown to climb, Lagway had to fall. It was by no means a catastrophic outing for the Florida quarterback, but a worthy Heisman winner should be able to will his team to victory over an upset-minded team from the American. Lagway went 23-for-33 for 222 yards and a late go-ahead touchdown but also had a blemish on his line with his first interception of the year.
Florida had trouble finishing drives and three times had to settle for field goals, which ultimately proved costly. Penalties and inefficient runs were more to blame than Lagway for the drives stalling, in the former No. 1 quarterback recruit's defense.
The other colossal upset of the week put Leavitt behind the 8-ball. He rode the momentum of last year's playoff run into 2025 as a popular Heisman pick and even picked up first-round draft prospect buzz but has not been entirely sharp to open the campaign. On the heels of a mostly strong but still imperfect opener against Northern Arizona, Leavitt looked rattled by the raucous atmosphere at Mississippi State in what ended as a 24-20 loss for reigning Big 12 champion Arizona State.
Leavitt tossed two more interceptions against the Bulldogs and now has a conference-high three picks on his ledger through two games. He also enters Week 3 seeking to rebound from the most inaccurate passing performance of his career, having completed just 45.5% of his throws in the trip to SEC country.
Week 3 performances to watch
One of the best ways to pick up momentum in the Heisman race is to outperform a fellow contender in head-to-head action. Week 3 presents a bevy of such opportunities. This week's "performances to watch" segment features four of them.
Carson Beck vs. Byrum Brown
The frontrunner vs. the dark-horse. Carson Beck has the Miami offense cooking with a start to the season that put all of the concerns from his last year at Georgia to rest. He looks healthy, confident and capable in the Shannon Dawson system. But here comes Brown, hungry for a third upset in as many weeks after ousting Boise State and Florida from the top 25. Will Miami's seemingly improved defense hold strong against this red-hot opponent?
Garrett Nussmeier vs. DJ Lagway
The elder statesman vs. the youngster. Year 5 for Garrett Nussmeier looks like a possible championship campaign, especially with him putting another explosive passing attack on his shoulders. LSU leads the SEC in passing attempts and completions for a second year in a row. Can Lagway respond quickly from a letdown defeat, or will the loss fester? Bouncing back against a potential conference or national title team is tough for anyone, let alone a true sophomore.
Gunner Stockton vs. Joey Aguilar
The returner vs. the transfer. It is impossible to know whether Gunner Stockton improved much in his first full offseason as the Georgia starter because he has yet to face a decent team. He and the Bulldogs feasted on Marshall and Austin Peay before putting things into cruise control. Joey Aguilar has at least played a Power Four opponent, and he was terrific in that Tennessee debut. Now in his third school this year, Aguilar seems to have settled in quickly with the Volunteers.
Cade Klubnik vs. Haynes King
The hunted vs. the hunter. Clemson had a target on its back from the get-go and has not looked up to the task of defending itself as a national championship hopeful. Cade Klubnik was not sharp in the loss to LSU nor in the close call against Troy. That makes him and the Tigers hard to trust against Haynes King and Georgia Tech, perennial giant killers who always seem capable of ruining a good party. King had a week of rest after torching Colorado for 156 rushing yards and three touchdowns.