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The Big Ten is all but guaranteed to place three teams in this season's College Football Playoff, but things could get chaotic if unbeaten Ohio State or Indiana slip down the stretch. College football's two best teams are on a crash course to meet at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis for a blockbuster No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown, but Oregon, USC and Michigan are also threats.

USC-Oregon is a pivotal matchup Saturday in Eugene, while Michigan's narrow win over Northwestern last week kept the Wolverines in the playoff conversation. USC's rain-soaked win over Iowa was effectively a playoff elimination game for the Trojans, and similar stakes accompany their Week 13 clash with the Ducks.

Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti pushed for a more "NFL-style" playoff this offseason, with play-in games keeping CFP hopes alive later into the season. Ironically, the conference has five teams capable of reaching double-digit wins this year, which would be a record.

The Big Ten announced new tiebreaking procedures ahead of the 2024 season and will follow them to determine which two teams meet for the conference championship on Dec. 6.

Big Ten tiebreakers, explained 

  • The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
  • The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
  • The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
  • The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
  • The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the commissioner or designee.

Ohio State (10-0, 7-0)

While there's no guarantee the Buckeyes will end a four-year losing streak to Michigan, it's clear the Wolverines are the final hurdle between Ohio State and the top seed in the conference title game.

  • If Ohio State beats Rutgers and Michigan: The Buckeyes advance to the Big Ten Championship Game.
  • If Ohio State loses to Rutgers but beats Michigan: The Buckeyes miss the title game if Indiana and Oregon win out, as the Ducks would hold a better record against common Big Ten opponents (Rutgers).
  • If Ohio State beats Rutgers but loses to Michigan: The Buckeyes miss the championship if Indiana and USC win out.

Indiana (11-0, 8-0)

Curt Cignetti's team is in great shape to play for a conference championship. Outside of the comeback win at Penn State earlier this month, the Hoosiers have coasted in league play this season and are setting up for a top-4 seed in the playoff.

  • If the Hoosiers beat Purdue on Nov. 28, they're in the Big Ten Championship Game.
  • If the Hoosiers lose to Purdue and Michigan beats Maryland and Ohio State, Indiana misses the Big Ten Championship Game by virtue of the Wolverines having a better record among common Big Ten opponents (Purdue).

Oregon (9-1, 6-1)

The home loss to Indiana this season weakened Oregon's chance at repeating as Big Ten champions. However, there's still two clear paths that would provide an opportunity to defend their crowd with both involving an Ohio State loss.

  • If the Ducks beat USC and Washington and Michigan beats Ohio State, they're in the Big Ten Championship Game.
  • If the Ducks beat USC and Washington and Ohio State loses to Rutgers but beats Michigan, they're in the Big Ten Championship Game by virtue of a better record than the Buckeyes among common Big Ten opponents (Rutgers).

USC (8-2, 6-1)

At this point, Lincoln Riley's only goal should be winning at Oregon this weekend before closing things out against UCLA. Ten wins likely gets USC in the playoff as the Big Ten's second at-large selection without having to play an extra game in Indianapolis before the first round next month.

  • If the Trojans beat Oregon and UCLA and Ohio State loses to Michigan, they're in the Big Ten Championship Game by virtue of a virtue of a better record than the Buckeyes among common Big Ten opponents (Michigan).

Michigan (8-2, 6-1)

The rivalry showdown with Ohio State only matters in the conference title conversation for the Wolverines if they handle business against Maryland this weekend. Then, the finale in Ann Arbor holds significant meaning.

  • If the Wolverines beat Maryland and Ohio State and Indiana loses to Purdue, they're in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Wolverines hold a tiebreaker advantage over the Hoosiers since they beat the Boilermakers earlier this season.
  • If the Wolverines beat Maryland and Ohio State, Oregon beats USC and Washington beats Oregon, they're in the Big Ten Championship Game. This scenario puts Michigan with one conference loss and it would play Indiana in the final.
  • If the Wolverines beat Maryland and Ohio State, USC beats Oregon and UCLA beats USC, they're in the Big Ten Championship Game. Since USC holds the tiebreaker advantage head-to-head with Michigan, the Wolverines need the Trojans to lose again.