2025 ACC Championship Game scenarios: Georgia Tech in driver's seat, Miami still has path after Week 12 win

The ACC opened November struggling to make its case as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender after a series of unexpected results, and another crazy weekend has spiked the league championship conversation once again coming down the stretch.

No. 15 Miami, a longshot to reach the ACC title game despite being the playoff selection committee's highest-rated team in the conference this week as projected champion, saw one domino that needed to fall happen for the Hurricanes to stay alive. With Miami's blowout win over NC State, there's now a path for the conference to get multiple bids in the 12-team bracket if the Hurricanes win out but fail to win the league.

They're going to need help from others, however.

Clemson's stunning upset of Louisville on Friday night preceded Saturday's wild double-digit comeback by Georgia Tech at Boston College and Virginia's takedown of Duke. Now that the dust has settled, Georgia Tech is one win away from reaching the ACC title game while Virginia, SMU and Pittsburgh are the three other ACC teams with one conference loss saddled by various scenarios in play over the final two weeks of the season.

Pat Narduzzi acknowledged Pitt's ACC-slanted focus earlier in the week, but it wasn't much of a pre-game excuse for a 37-15 loss to Notre Dame in a one-sided affair. Virginia appears to be in the best shape to get to Charlotte and helped the ACC avoid the doomsday scenario in which a four-loss Duke team ran the table and was potentially skipped over by the selection committee in favor of a second Group of Five champion.

Before diving into conference championship game scenarios, let's go over the league standings:

ACC standings after Week 12

20th-ranked Louisville was one of seven teams entering Week 12 who still had a shot at playing for a conference title, but that ended with late-game failures against Clemson. Now, there's six teams on the table with Duke being a considerable long shot after failing to deliver at home.

Georgia Tech reaches ACC Championship Game if ...

1. Beat Pitt

In this scenario, Georgia Tech (7-1 in ACC) locks in berth as first-place team, awaits Virginia or who wins tiebreaker.

Virginia reaches ACC Championship Game if ...

1. Beat Virginia Tech 
2. SMU loses to Louisville or Cal
3. Pitt loses to Georgia Tech or Miami
   

In this scenario, Virginia (7-1) locks in berth as first-place team; Georgia Tech or Pitt or SMU for second.

Miami reaches ACC Championship Game if ...

1. Beats Virginia Tech and Pitt
2. Virginia beats Virginia Tech
3. Pitt beats Georgia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, SMU beats Louisville
   
4. Cal beats SMU, Wake Forest beats Duke
   

In this scenario, Virginia (7-1 in ACC) and Miami (6-2) go to Charlotte with four-way tiebreaker advantages over Georgia Tech/Pitt/SMU.

1. Beats Virginia Tech and Pitt
2. Virginia beats Virginia Tech
3. Pitt beats Georgia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, Louisville beats SMU
   
4. SMU beats Cal, Wake Forest beats Duke
   

In this scenario, Virginia (7-1 in ACC) and Miami (6-2) go to Charlotte with four-way tiebreaker advantages over Georgia Tech/Pitt/SMU.

Pitt reaches ACC Championship Game if ...

1. Beats Georgia Tech and Miami
2. SMU loses to Louisville or Cal 
3. Virginia beats Virginia Tech

In this scenario, Pitt (7-1) and Virginia (7-1) go to Charlotte.

1. Beats Georgia Tech and Miami
2. SMU beats Louisville and Cal
3. Virginia Tech beats Virginia

In this scenario, Pitt (7-1) and SMU (7-1) go to Charlotte.

SMU reaches ACC Championship Game if ...

1. Beats Louisville and Cal
2. Virginia Tech beats Virginia
3. Pitt beats Georgia Tech
4. Miami beats Pitt

In this scenario, SMU (7-1) and Pitt (6-2) go to Charlotte with tiebreaker advantages over Miami/Virginia/Georgia Tech.