Tomorrow's Top 25 Today: Arizona makes case to take over No. 1 spot from Purdue
The Wildcats are off to a hot start and have their eye on the No. 1 ranking in the AP Top 25
By
Kyle Boone
•
6 min read
A team that earns the No. 1 ranking from AP voters rarely loses its spot atop the rankings without sustaining a loss.
Notice I said rarely; it doesn't happen often. But it does happen.
And my official guess: It happens this week for a second time this season when the rankings refresh on Monday. And for a second time this season it will be Purdue that loses the No. 1 spot despite remaining undefeated, if indeed voters make the switch.
The preseason No. 1 Boilermakers fell from No. 1 to No. 2 in Week 2 despite a 2-0 start with double digit wins over Evansville and Oakland -- surmounted by then-No. 2 Houston jumping one spot. Purdue reclaimed the No. 1 ranking last week after defeating Alabama and Akron. But they're positioned to fall back from No. 1 again, as you can gather by this predictive diatribe now, despite a perfect 2-0 week that featured wins over Memphis and Texas Tech.
Arizona's just been that good. Two wins over top-25 teams were on its resume entering the week after defeating then-No. 3. Florida on opening day and No. 15 UCLA last week, good enough to potentially give it the best resume in the sport. That put the Wildcats at No. 4 in last week's rankings. A true road win Wednesday over No. 3 UConn has them poised to leap again. And there should be no doubt about which team has the best resume in college basketball.
I don't think it'll be unanimous, to be clear. Voters who had Purdue at No. 1 may keep it at No. 1, the idea being you have to quite literally lose a game to lose the No. 1 ranking. Houston and Duke may even continue to earn first-place votes. But at the very least, Arizona, which earned two first-place votes last week, will have at least significantly cut into Purdue's grip at No. 1, if not outright taking the spot.
I'm just the messenger. That's not my argument nor how I'd necessarily approach the topic. But every week I predict how AP voters will react to the week's results. And that -- along with the below top 25 -- is my official prediction.
| 1 |  |
| Two wins over teams ranked No. 3 and another win over a team ranked No. 15. Yeah, that'll do. It's the best resume in college basketball, and it should be enough to make the Wildcats No. 1 on Monday. Last week: No. 4 | |
| 2 |  |
| Purdue's resume is nothing to sneeze at, even if its body of work overall isn't quite as remarkable as Arizona's. It has a road win over No. 8 Alabama and a weekend win in the Baha Mar championship over No. 15 Texas Tech, 86-56. Yes: Purdue blasted Texas Tech by 30 points. Last week: No. 1 | |
| 3 |  |
| How weird a week was it? Houston improved to 5-0 with a 46-point win over Rider and is probably going to drop in the rankings. Last week: No. 2 | |
| 4 |  |
| Duke'll be back at No. 4 in the polls this week after pummeling Niagara, Howard and Kansas in its path to a 7-0 start. It's the first time the Blue Devils have opened a season 7-0 since 2021-22. Last week: No. 5 | |
| 5 |  |
| Three years ago -- the penultimate season under Kenny Payne -- Louisville won four games the entire season. Now the Cardinals under second-year coach Pat Kelsey have eclipsed that total before the end of November. They are 5-0 to mark the best start since 2019-20. Last week: No. 6 | |
| 6 |  |
| Michigan has two wins in two contests vs. major conference opponents and is 4-0 on the season. The Wolverines play San Diego State in a big showdown Monday in Vegas. Last week: No. 7 | |
| 7 |  |
| UConn played with fire in a narrow win over BYU last Saturday and got burned doing the same Wednesday vs. visiting Arizona. The 71-67 loss is its first on the season. It likely won't drop the Huskies far given the credentials of the Wildcats. Last week: No. 3 | |
| 8 |  |
| A 98-70 victory over No. 23 Wisconsin on Friday was BYU's first outing after suffering its first loss of the season last Saturday vs. UConn. That's one way to make a statement. The Cougars will remain comfortably inside the top 10 this week. Last week: No. 9 | |
| 9 |  |
| That season-opening 93-87 loss to Arizona is looking more understandable by the day for the defending champion Florida Gators. They have won four-straight leading into Thursday's game vs. TCU. Last week: No. 10 | |
| 10 |  |
| Gonzaga's exclusion from the top 10 of the AP rankings thus far this season is ball-knowing malpractice. I'm predicting they'll rectify the mistake Monday. Last week: No. 13 | |
| 11 |  |
| Aggressive nonconference scheduling -- we love to see it! -- is paying big dividends for Alabama and coach Nate Oats. They beat Illinois on Wednesday in a 90-86 thriller and now have two top-10 wins on their early resume. Last week: No. 11 | |
| 12 |  |
| It's hard to imagine Illinois falls far this week but given the head-to-head loss to Alabama, voters likely have no choice but to place the Illini somewhere behind the Crimson Tide. Last week: No. 8 | |
| 13 |  |
| St. John's has beat its last two opponents (William & Mary and Bucknell) by 33 and 48 points, respectively. It faces Iowa State and Baylor on consecutive days this week, its first real tests since a home loss to Alabama in early November. Last week: No. 14 | |
| 14 |  |
| We will learn a lot about Iowa State this week as it faces St. John's on Monday and Creighton on Tuesday. What we know so far: It is 4-0 with a defense that leads the country in forced turnover rate. Last week: No. 16 | |
| 15 |  |
| Tom Izzo and Michigan State will be climbing the polls Monday after defeating Kentucky 83-66 in the Champions Classic on Tuesday. His Spartans are 5-0 on the season with two wins over ranked opponents. Last week: No. 17 | |
| 16 |  |
| UNC is 5-0 on the season with its Nov. 7 win over Kansas keeping the Tar Heels in the teens in Monday's poll. Last week: No. 18 | |
| 17 |  |
| A 30-point loss to No. 1 Purdue on Friday dealt the Red Raiders their second loss vs. a ranked opponent in as many tries this season. Last week: No. 15 | |
| 18 |  |
| UCLA will be ranked in the teens once again Monday as it has been in every poll this season. It is 5-1 overall on the season and coming off consecutive blowout wins over Sacramento State and Presbyterian. Last week: No. 19 | |
| 19 |  |
| There's a pretty strong case for Tennessee to be ranked significantly higher than this -- but so far it has yet to play a team ranked higher than No. 199 at KenPom. Until the Vols' schedule toughens, we're probably going to see them continue lingering in this range. Last week: No. 20 | |
| 20 |  |
| Arkansas is 5-1 on the season with four-straight wins leading into Thursday's tilt vs. Duke in Chicago. Last week: No. 21 | |
| 21 |  |
| The best feat for Auburn thus far is *only* losing by one to Houston last weekend. None of the team's other four wins came against teams ranked higher than No. 187 at KenPom. Last week: No. 22 | |
| 22 |  |
| I'm not sure voters drop Kentucky out of the rankings this week but the Wildcats are very much in jeopardy of that playing out. They looked listless vs. Michigan State in the Champions Classic on Tursday. Last week: No. 12 | |
| 23 |  |
| NC State snuck into the rankings last week at No. 25 and should continue to be in this week's poll after a 1-0 week in which it beat VCU. Last week: No. 25 | |
| 24 |  |
| The last time a Vanderbilt basketball team was ranked in November or December: 2015! Mark Byington's club has a good case thanks to its No. 2 scoring offense. Their scoring margin is sixth-best among all college basketball teams. Last week: NR | |
| 25 |  |
| Kansas is very much in jeopardy of falling out of the rankings this week. It fell 78-66 to Duke on Tuesday and is 3-2 on the year. Last week: No. 24 | |
