This is the ultimate strength-on-strength clash. Illinois uses relentless offensive rebounding to tilt the shot-volume edge in its direction. Similarly, Houston uses a massive turnover delta to lean the shot-volume edge in its direction.
Houston has had 320 more scoring chances than its opponents this year. That ranks eighth-best nationally, per CBB Analytics. Illinois has had 316 more scoring chances than its opponents. That ranks ninth-best.
Something has to give in this one, and the grappling for rebounds will be eerily similar to a UFC fight.
On paper, Illinois has some real schematic edges. Potential lottery pick Keaton Wagler is all of 6-feet-6 and has made strong decisions all year. His height helps him see over the top of traps, which Houston will bring religiously. High-processing big men are also usually required to create good shots against Houston's aggressive defense. Illinois has them in David Mirkovic (16.9 assist rate) and Tomislav Ivisic (11.2 assist rate). Illinois will also have a dangerous shooter on the back side of the floor in Jake Davis or Ben Humrichous, who have both made 50+ treys at a 36% and 41% clip, respectively.
That type of spacing is what has helped Texas Tech give Houston issues. Illinois has the personnel to replicate it.
Illinois has avenues to create good shots, and when it misses, the Illini will hammer the offensive glass, which is the one area where Houston's defense can be vulnerable.
But Illinois can't win this one if it doesn't guard. Houston's backcourt creates problems for the Illini because they make the tough shots that Brad Underwood tries to coax. Kingston Flemings averages 5.8 points per game on pull-up jumpers. That ranks 25th-best -- out of over 2,100 qualifying players -- in the country. Fellow guard Milos Uzan also owns a feathery floater, and you know Emanuel Sharp is a dynamic 3-point assassin. Houston's depth is much-improved, too. Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty are giving Houston more punch off the bench.
Chris Cenac versus Mirkovic feels like the swing factor. When Houston's five-star freshman forward plays well, the Cougars feel unbeatable. Illinois will do its best to blanket the perimeter, funnel everything inside the paint and live with Cenac jumpers. He has to make open shots, defend Mirkovic without fouling and clean up everything on the defensive backboards.
This has the makings of a whale of a game because both teams pose real problems for each other. This game is effectively a home game for Houston, but Illinois gets the early lean because it has at least seven reliable scorers and takes high-quality shots. Comparatively, far too many Houston games are littered with tough shots and only three truly reliable offensive threats. Houston's role players have to play great to pull this one off.
The pick: Illinois