Jan. 24. That's when all the prophecies about last season's fantastic freshmen came to life for the world to see. Houston's Kingston Flemings erupted for 42 points on the road at Texas Tech. Illinois' Keaton Wagler hit the flow state to eviscerate Purdue for 46 points in the Illini's 88-82 upset win. It was the most points a visitor had ever scored at the house of horrors that is Mackey Arena. Not to be outdone, future No. 1 NBA Draft pick AJ Dybantsa put his name into the Holy War record books with a 43-burger in BYU's win over hated rival Utah.
Three ice-cold, 40-pieces from three special freshmen. All in a span of six hours on a frigid Saturday.
Oh, and Duke's Cameron Boozer and Arkansas' Darius Acuff Jr. erupted for 30-plus to lead their squads to road wins, as well, but that day belonged to Wagler, Flemings and Dybantsa. It was the first time in at least 30 years that three freshmen went for at least 40 points on the same day.
That is the history that this new freshman class will have to chase. Grassroots hoop-heads caution that the incoming 2026 recruiting class is down compared to the 2025 iteration that featured all-time talents like Boozer, Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson and was bolstered with Caleb Wilson's UNC blast-off and Wagler's storybook rise from unranked by multiple recruiting services to the No. 5 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
While the unknown is the best adventure of every freshman class, the diaper dandies who emerge will have earned it. College basketball's exploding pay-for-play market reeled numerous first-rounders back to school. It has formed serious roadblocks on the depth charts, and the path to playing time will only steepen if the slew of seniors win their court cases against the NCAA for a fifth year of eligibility. Plus, this group of freshmen is quite young. Numerous players have reclassified up to the Class of 2026 to get to college earlier than ever to start cashing NIL direct deposits.
All the fair concerns have created a narrative that the 2027 NBA Draft will be weak. Can this group flip that script?
Let's dive in.
The top dawgs
Editor's note: Michigan five-star guard Brandon McCoy Jr. was slated to be a top dawg, but suffered a season-ending knee injury on the Wolverines' international tour.
F Tyran Stokes, Kansas: Bill Self believes he has the best player in the country on the roster. Stokes enters 2026-27 on the inside track to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NBA Draft. The 6-foot-8, 230-pound jumbo guard can pass, dribble, shoot, rebound and defend. He should be one of the Big 12's most fearsome transition scorers right away. Stokes has to prove he is mature enough to be a face-of-the-franchise player, but the talent is indisputable.
G Jordan Smith Jr., Arkansas: Smith's winning intangibles are off the charts. The yoked 6-2 combo guard uses a massive 6-8.25 wingspan to play way bigger than his height. He wills his team to wins on a nightly basis. Defensively, he will heat up the basketball religiously and projects to be a takeaway machine. He's tough and a torrid competitor. But there are real questions about his offensive translation. Is he a true point guard? How real are the strides he's taken as a pull-up shooter? With Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas off to the NBA, Arkansas will hand Smith a huge runway to be the man offensively. Smith can solidify himself as a no-doubt, top-three pick if he proves he can be the on-ball driver of an elite offense.
G Caleb Holt, Arizona: Holt has terrific positional size (6-5, 215 pounds) and the mentality to be an outstanding two-way player from the jump. Holt's jumper is still a bit of a question at this point, but he does everything else well. He'll take tough assignments defensively for Arizona. He will eat in Tommy Lloyd's transition-tilted attack. He'll be a voracious rebounder. The ceiling outcomes get clearer if the jumper really pops. The Brayden Burries comparisons are appropriate because they both approach the game in such a mature way, but Burries had a bit more offensive juice. Holt can still be a top-five pick even if he's not Arizona's primary offensive option. The defense, rebounding and athleticism form an incredibly useful skillset.
The remarkable 17-year-olds
College basketball will feature numerous freshmen who are not old enough to qualify for the 2027 NBA Draft, so they will play two years of college ball before heading to the league in 2028.
F Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje, Duke: Buckle up. It's Boumtje-Boumtje time. The 7-1, 250-pound big man has a polished skillset that's more outside-in than inside-out, but it won't take long to put his imprint on the college game, even though he is one of the youngest players in the country. Boumtje-Boumtje is an exceptional shooter for a big fella, and he's been a high-volume rebounder at every stop. Boumtje-Boumtje should be very serviceable in Year 1 with stardom in his not-so-distant future. Duke's ceiling gets very high if Boumtje-Boumtje starts playing like a future No. 1 pick by March.
F Nikola Kusturica, UCLA: It's hard not to fall in love with how Kusturica approaches the game. He is a warrior who has a ridiculously high competitive spirit. That shows up everywhere: flying around on defense, protecting the rim, throwing his body on the floor for loose balls, cutting hard even when he's not getting the ball, attacking the glass, relentless drives and so much more. Kusturica was UCLA's big-ticket acquisition to fill its starting spot at the 3, and he's going to be a two-way game-changer once he gets up to speed. He's firmly in the mix to be the No. 1 pick in the draft in 2028, alongside Boumtje-Boumtje.
F Marcus Spears Jr., Texas: Defense and motor can get you a long way in basketball, especially when you have the physical tools that Spears possesses. The lean 6-9, 210-pound forward plays positionless basketball. He could be labeled as a jumbo wing or maybe a power forward, but he's really just a basketball player who can guard every position and will get out and run with the best of 'em. If Texas controls the glass like it wants to do with Matas Vokietaitis and David Punch, there will be a ton of opportunities for Spears to make money on the open floor. Spears won't be the focal point of this offense right away, but he's going to help this team a ton in ancillary ways.
Theoretical upside
These freshmen have the tools to be very good one day, but some question how ready they'll be right away.
F Cameron Williams, Duke: I love Williams' upside, but I do not love Williams' path to playing time. The No. 4 prospect in the Class of 2026 will be in a dogfight with Boumjte-Boumjte to start at the 4 for Duke next year. He'll also compete with prized Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski for minutes off the bench. Earning trust will be essential, and you do that by stacking positive plays on top of the next on both ends of the floor. Williams is a toolsy 7-foot, 215-pound power forward who can stretch the floor, run for days and be an impactful defender. He just has so much competition for playing time, let alone a starring role. Can he become a one-and-done lottery pick even if he's not the focal point at Duke?
F Baba Oladotun, Maryland: Oladotun is the No. 9 prospect in 2026, but he's one of the youngest players in the class, and there's still a ton of questions about just how impactful he can be immediately. Oladotun needs to pack muscle onto his skinny 6-10, 195-pound frame, and it's essential that he becomes a knockdown shooter to reach his full potential. Oladotun's best trait right now is his ability to shed defenders in the open floor, and he has real appeal as a jumbo driver, but the spacing in Maryland's offense could be poor if Tomislav Buljan (8-26 from 3-point range last year) and Pharrel Payne (zero made triples in four years) are on the floor together. A tough shot diet seems inevitable for Oladotun in Year 1. He very well could be a multi-year college player.
F Anthony Thompson, Ohio State: Size and shooting. That's what basketball is prioritizing these days, and Thompson has it. The 6-8 forward has been a high-level shooter at every stop of his high school basketball career. That's what Ohio State is banking on next to Juni Mobley and Amare Bynum. But can he improve his handle? Can Thompson become a menacing defender? How competitive is he? Those are all questions NBA scouts are asking at this early point in the cycle.
Depth chart 10: The good
The depth chart looks wide open for these freshmen to get a real shot to ball out.
G Jason Crowe Jr., Missouri: Expectations are high for the five-star point guard, and it's hard to argue with any of it. The sweet-shooting lefty is a stone-cold baller who can score in his sleep. Creation is one of the major questions with this power-forward-heavy Missouri roster, but it just illustrates just how much the ball will be in Crowe's hands, even if Mark Mitchell gets a fifth year of eligibility. Crowe will command one of the highest usage rates in the SEC, and his tough shot-making will provide Dennis Gates with a ridiculous "get out of jail free" card in late-clock situations. Crowe's growth as a playmaker will determine if he becomes a legit top-five pick in 2027.
G Bruce Branch III, BYU: Branch is not a wrecking ball like AJ Dybantsa, but he's still set up to be very successful for the Cougars. The 6-7 wing has a massive 7-1 wingspan and profiles as an excellent 3-and-D prospect. Getting to play with a paint-touch point guard like Rob Wright should make Branch's life so much easier. Branch has the situation (and game) to be a top-five pick in 2027.
G Miles Sadler, West Virginia: Sadler has the juice. The diminutive lead guard has limitless range and ridiculous speed. He's wired to score, and West Virginia is prepared to build everything around him. He's going to be a must-watch for college basketball junkies so quickly. Ross Hodge has smartly surrounded Sadler with snipers like Joson Sanon and Finley Bizjack in the backcourt and a defensive-minded frontcourt in Mo Sylla and Brenen Lorient (if eligible). Sadler could certainly push Tyran Stokes for Big 12 Freshman of the Year because the talent and situation are aligned for takeoff.
C Marcis Ponder, Florida State: Ponder is a big, big man. The 7-foot, 285-pound center has a clear runway to major playing time for the 'Noles. Ponder is dubbed 'Baby Shaq' for good reason. He's a hulk who runs the floor incredibly hard and wants to rip the rim off every single time. Top-100 teams shot over 61% at the rim against Florida State last season. That ranked outside the top-300 nationally. Ponder will flip that script instantly.
Depth chart 101: The bad
The depth chart could hinder these freshmen from exploding.
C Arafan Diane, Houston: Diane is a top-25 big man recruit in the country, but Houston's starting lineup is set. Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie and JoJo Tugler will start at the 4 and 5, respectively. Diane has worked hard to slim down his frame to execute a Houston defensive coverage that asks a ton of court coverage from its big men, but that's going to be an ongoing work in progress. On the bright side, Diane is a game-changer on the glass, so Houston will find minutes for him because no one likes rebounds more than Houston. It just might be closer to 15 minutes per game.
G Deron Rippey Jr., Duke: Rippey is a five-star point guard for a reason, but this backcourt picture is loaded. Duke landed Wisconsin stud guard John Blackwell in the transfer portal and retained both Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer. Duke also may have to find minutes for fellow prized freshman shooting guard Bryson Howard, who has had an excellent summer. If Rippey gets legitimate minutes, they will be earned. Thankfully, he does bring something to the table that Duke's other guards don't have in the toolkit: elite speed. Rippey has both jet packs and springs in his feet. I'm also very interested in the idea of playing some multiple point guard looks to try and keep Duke's turnover rate low to make up for the fact that the Blue Devils may not be quite as elite on the offensive glass without Cameron Boozer. Winning the shot-volume game is essential these days, so Rippey has to play clean when he gets a chance.
F Christian Collins, USC: Jacob Cofie's return at the NBA Draft stay-or-go deadline could certainly have an impact on just how big the role will be for Collins. The high-motor, top-10 prospect can play the 3 or the 4, but USC has to find minutes for Alijah Arenas and Georgetown transfer KJ Lewis on the wing, and Cofie is running it back, hoping to assert himself as one of the top two-way forwards in the Big Ten. Although, a preseason injury to starting center Eric Reibe could lead USC coach Eric Musselman to explore some small-ball lineups with Collins at the 4 and Cofie at the 5 in some matchups. That would be one of the most switchable defensive front-lines in the Big Ten, and Collins is a menace on the boards.
Good role players on potentially great teams
G/F Colben Landrew, UConn: Landrew is an outstanding prospect with great size and a pass-dribble-shoot skillset, but he is not expected to start for UConn at the 3. As of now, that's Jayden Ross' job to lose. That means Landrew will have to make his mark as a do-everything sixth man. Landrew is a bowling-ball, game-wrecker who has all the tools to be a killer college player, but it's time to start acting like a pro in every facet.
G Quentin Coleman, Illinois: Coleman is not expected to be an on-ball player at Illinois -- he's currently behind David Mirkovic, Stefan Vaaks and Andrej Stojakovic in the pecking order -- but Coleman is going to be an incredibly impactful role player. Coleman has no off switch. He plays hard relentlessly. Coleman is an excellent offensive rebounder, and he'll add some defensive disruption to an Illinois defense that usually doesn't create a ton of takeaways. He should be an extremely impactful cutter, slasher and spot-up shooter as well.
G Austin Goosby, Texas: Big guards are so useful. Goosby is all of 6-5 with a 6-9 wingspan. He can play on or off the ball, and he's already got plenty of chemistry with Marcus Spears Jr. because they played together in high school. Goosby has a shot to shine in a complementary role for this loaded Texas squad because of the combination of skill, size and feel.
G Abdou Toure, Arkansas: As usual, John Calipari has a loaded roster with a galore of young talent, but it's going to be hard to keep Toure off the floor. The 6-5, 200-pound wing has a chiseled frame that does not look like a freshman, plus he takes defense super seriously. Toure and Jordan Smith Jr. on the floor together should be a nightmare for opposing ball-handlers. I'm also bullish on the offense being ahead of the curve. Toure can turn the corner and put dudes on a poster in the halfcourt, and he's a blur in transition. If the jumper pops, Toure will be a one-and-done prospect.
Gems outside the top 50
G Carlos Medlock Jr., Michigan State: The summer buzz on Medlock continues to percolate. The undersized guard is a total bucket-getter who should help Michigan State in a ton of ways. MSU needs to lower its turnover rate after rating 16th out of 18 Big Ten teams in giveaways during conference play. Playing Medlock and All-American point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. together can help the Spartans do just that. Medlock is just so incredibly skilled. His pace, his handle, his shot-making. It's all there.
F Gavin Placide, Wake Forest: Placide has made a big impression on the Wake Forest staff with his physicality and effort on the glass. It would not surprise anyone if Placide earns a spot in Wake Forest's opening day starting lineup. The 6-9, 220-pound forward doesn't shoot it at a high level yet, but he can be a menace in the paint in an ACC that tends to be a bit more finesse.
