Duke vs. Texas odds, prediction: College basketball picks, November 4 picks from proven model

While Monday marked the start of the 2025-26 college basketball season, several teams are waiting until Tuesday to tip off, including a pair of power conference programs. No. 6 Duke and Texas will meet in the Dick Vitale Invitational 2025, which is an event in its inaugural year. Duke went 35-4 last season, sweeping both the ACC regular season and tournament, before bowing out in the Final Four. Texas went 19-16 a year ago and lost in the First Four of March Madness, before replacing Rodney Terry with Sean Miller as head coach.

Tipoff is at 8:45 p.m. ET from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Duke has won all three prior matchups between the programs. The Blue Devils are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Duke vs. Texas odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 152.5. Before making any Texas vs. Duke picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and has returned over $2,200 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks over the past three seasons. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has simulated Duke vs. Texas 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Texas vs. Duke:

Why Texas can cover

The Longhorns return a pair of double-digit scorers in Jordan Pope (11 ppg) and Tramon Mark (10.6), while adding a couple of others. Lassina Traore transfers in from Long Beach State, where he was a two-time All-Big West Selection and twice led the conference in rebounds. Also, the Longhorns landed Matas Vokietaitis from FAU, where the Lithuanian was the American Conference Rookie of the Year last season, averaging 10.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and knocking down 67.7% of his field goal attempts.

Perhaps the biggest addition for Texas is bringing aboard coach Sean Miller, who previously served at Xavier and Arizona. He is a four-time winner of his conference's Coach of the Year award and is known for getting the most out of his players, especially on the offensive end of the court. That's one area where Texas can challenge Duke as the Blue Devils lost two ACC All-Defensive players to the NBA Draft, one of them being the AP Player of the Year in Cooper Flagg. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why Duke can cover

Duke simply reloaded from losing Flagg and four others to the pros, as the team has the No. 1 incoming freshmen class, per 247Sports. That class is highlighted by Cameron Boozer, who is the No. 3 overall recruit and is one of four athletes, ever, to twice win the Gatorade National Player of the Year award in high school. His twin, Cayden Boozer, is the No. 4 point guard in his class, while Duke also landed two other 5-star prospects in Nikolas Khamenia and Dame Sarr.

It's not only newcomers on the Duke roster as it returns four rotation players from last year's squad which made it to the Final Four. Jon Scheyer's team covered 67.7% of its games a year ago, and the Blue Devils have also covered in two-thirds of their games versus non-conference opponents since 2023. Additionally, Duke can take solace in that Texas struggled when stepping up in competition as it went 0-5 outright versus top-10 ranked teams last season. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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How to make Duke vs. Texas picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Texas vs. Duke 10,000 times and is leaning Over the total, projecting 153 combined points. The model also says one side hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's men's college basketball picks. 

So who wins Duke vs. Texas, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas vs. Duke spread to back, all from the advanced model that has returned over $2,200 on its college basketball picks, and find out.