With the NCAA Tournament expanding from 68 teams to 76 for the 2026-27 college basketball season, fans of high-major programs will likely be less tolerant than ever when their teams fail to reach the Big Dance. Since all eight of the new spots are going to at-large teams, the expectation is that most of them will end up in the hands of the power leagues.
But even with the NCAA Tournament expanding, there are bound to be programs that went dancing last season only to be left out this year. There is simply too much volatility in the mass transfer era for anyone other than the highest spenders to roll out of bed and sleepwalk to the Big Dance.
Baylor and Creighton — two bulwarks of consistencey over the prior decade — each saw streaks of five straight NCAA Tournament appearances end last season. Auburn and Marquette also saw their tournament streaks end at four.
Other high-major programs that made the 2025 NCAA Tournament but then missed it in 2026 included Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Xavier, Marquette and Maryland.
For this week's edition of the Dribble Handoff, our writers are predicting which 2026 NCAA Tournament at-large team won't be back in the 2027 Big Dance.
NC State
Whether it's Jon Scheyer at Duke, Penny Hardaway at Memphis or Matt Painter at Purdue, I always like the idea of people returning to their alma maters to coach at places where they once played. These marriages don't always go well, obviously. But when they do, there are few things cooler because you know their hearts are really, really in it.
Justin Gainey is among the latest to join that club.
The former associate head coach at Tennessee played four seasons at NC State from 1996 to 2000, graduated with a Business Administration degree and then worked alongside Sidney Lowe on the ACC campus from 2006 to 2009. Now, 17 years later, Gainey is back in Raleigh as NC State's coach.
It's a great story.
And I'm optimistic he'll do well in time. But Paul McNeil Jr. and Ven-Allen Lubin are the only relevant players back from last season's team that Will Wade snuck into the NCAA Tournament with a No. 11 seed and the recruiting class ranks just 63rd nationally, according to 247Sports. That's not the best combo.
Would I bet my 401K on this prediction?
Absolutely not.
But, at least from my perspective, Gainey will need to overachieve with this roster to make the NCAA Tournament in his first season at NC State. So the Wolfpack seem like a reasonable answer to this question presented in this Dribble Handoff. -- Gary Parrish
Iowa
Iowa rode the all-Big Ten play of veteran point guard Bennett Stirtz to a breakthrough first season under coach Ben McCollum, as the Hawkeyes stunned reigning national champion Florida in the Sweet 16 before bowing out with an Elite Eight loss to Illinois. With Stirtz now gone after playing four seasons under McCollum at three different schools, this could be a reset year for one of the coaching profession's rising stars.
The good news is that five rotational players, including three starters, are back. Iowa supplemented that core with Illinois State transfer Ty'Reek Coleman at guard and seven-footer Andrew McKeever, who will bring an element of size that Iowa was missing a season ago. But it can't be overstated how much Stirtz did for the Hawkeyes while leading the team in scoring and assists. Everything the Hawkeyes did revolved around Stirtz, who logged 37.7 minutes per game. Last year's No. 2 and No. 3 scorers (Tavion Banks and Alvaro Folgueiras) are also gone, leaving Iowa with a totally revamped offensive hierarchy. -- David Cobb
UCF
I just don't see it with a roster that looks drastically different from last year's 21-win club. UCF is currently facing the reality that it has to replace its six of its top seven scorers, including stud point guard Themus Fulks who made everything hum.
The replacements are not up to snuff.
Well-traveled lead guard Dior Johnson is a total bucket-getter, and 7-foot-2 center John Bol is back to patrol the paint, but Johnny Dawkins needs numerous mid-major transfers to pop in the Big 12. NC A&T transfer Lewis Walker, Charleston transfer Mister Dean and FGCU transfer Isaiah Malone are three key swing pieces. On paper, you can see the bones of a defensive nucleus. Arturo Dean can really heat up the basketball at the point of attack. Mister Dean, when healthy, is one of the top athletes in college basketball. Bol ranked sixth in Big 12 play in block percentage. Defense has to be the calling-card for this group, but I think they need some reinforcements in the five-in-five market to be a true at-large team. Maybe Riley Kugel can return to Orlando after leading the team in scoring last year at nearly 15 points a night? But can UCF be good again if it's just a bunch of iso ball between Johnson and Kugel?
I'm hesitant.
The Crown awaits. -- Isaac Trotter
Georgia
Georgia got embarrassed by Saint Louis in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Even with tournament expansion, I think Georgia will be one of last season's at-large teams to miss out on the Big Dance entirely. The new key nonconference games that I will be keeping an eye on are against North Carolina (Nov. 13 in Chapel Hill) and Duke (Dec. 8 in New York). The game against UNC could be a massive swing game for Georgia's resume, as the rest of the nonconference schedule isn't exactly a way to stack quality wins.
The Bulldogs lost leading scorer Jeremiah Wilkinson to Arkansas and big man Somto Cyril to Miami. Georgia does return Blue Cain and Marcus Millender, but I don't think Mike White's roster has the firepower to keep up with the rest of the SEC. Despite winning at least 20 games in each of the last three seasons, White is still looking for his first tournament win with the Bulldogs. This season won't be the year that happens. -- Cameron Salerno
