2026 March Madness picks: Predictions against the spread, odds for Final Four games Saturday

Our experts give their opinion on Saturday's Final Four games in the 2026 NCAA Tournament

By Chip Patterson

Apr 3, 2026 at 4:49 pm ET • 4 min read

Getty Images

After three thrilling weeks of March Madness, the 2026 NCAA Tournament comes to a close with the Final Four in Indianapolis. Saturday night's two-game slate at Lucas Oil Stadium features four teams that have consistently ranked among the top 10 to 12 in the country, along with a mix of coaching pedigrees -- a seasoned veteran, a two-time national champion and two rising stars.

Unlike most years, there is no surprise team in the field. Each of these programs has viewed itself as a title contender for months, and fulfilling that expectation will come down to execution.

To say these teams arrive in Indianapolis with momentum might be an understatement -- even if their paths differed. This marks the first time three Final Four teams enter the national semifinals with four NCAA Tournament wins by double digits. Arizona, Michigan and Illinois each rolled through their regions, contributing to the best combined tournament point differential (+282) for a Final Four since 2009.

UConn's momentum comes differently. The Huskies stormed back from a double-digit deficit against No. 1 overall seed Duke in the Elite Eight, completing a 19-point comeback capped by one of the most memorable shots in tournament history. That run has propelled Dan Hurley's team back to the stage where it cut down the nets in 2023 and 2024. While UConn may not be the current favorite, none of the other teams can match its championship pedigree.

The night begins with No. 2 seed UConn facing No. 3 seed Illinois in a rematch of a late-November nonconference game at Madison Square Garden, won by the Huskies by 13 points. Illinois has evolved since then, fueled by the emergence of All-American guard Keaton Wagler. UConn, meanwhile, has leaned on star big man Tarris Reed during an impressive tournament run. The earlier matchup offers some context, but the semifinal will reveal far more once play begins.

The nightcap features one of the most anticipated national semifinals in recent memory. Arizona and Michigan -- the tournament's only No. 1 seeds remaining -- enter ranked No. 1 and No. 2 nationally in KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings. The Wildcats won the Big 12 regular-season and tournament titles, while the Wolverines claimed the Big Ten regular-season crown before falling to Purdue in the conference title game.

Combined, Arizona and Michigan are 71-5, with few discernible weaknesses. Both rank among the top five nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency, setting the stage for a high-level matchup defined by size, execution and depth -- a true clash of titans.

With the stage set, it's time to dive into our favorite picks for the 2026 Final Four. With margins this thin, finding value requires a more targeted approach. For those looking for traditional straight-up and against-the-spread selections, those are available as well via the Expert Picks panel.

(2) UConn vs. (3) Illinois

6:09 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live

Throw out the stats from the first meeting between these teams -- a 74-61 UConn win -- because Keaton Wagler and Tarris Reed, each of whom was later named Most Outstanding Player of their respective regionals, played fewer than 15 minutes in that game. A more useful lens is how both teams have performed recently.

Illinois' defensive efficiency has improved significantly from its season-long baseline, while UConn has leaned more heavily on Reed's presence in the post as its primary offensive option. Both teams are comfortable operating in the half court, and with the Huskies' deliberate pace in particular, this projects as a lower-possession game.

The difference is that Illinois has consistently played -- and excelled -- in that style. The Fighting Illini have held three straight opponents under 60 points, including wins against Houston and Iowa, two teams that also prefer a slow tempo.

If that defensive form carries over to Indianapolis, Illinois is well-positioned to make it a difficult scoring night for UConn. Pick: UConn Team Total Under 69.5

	Gary Parrish	Matt Norlander	Chip Patterson	David Cobb	Cameron Salerno	Isaac Trotter
ILL -2.5	UConn	UConn	ILL	ILL	ILL	ILL
S/U	ILL	ILL	ILL	ILL	ILL	ILL

(1) Arizona vs. (1) Michigan

8:49 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live

We've often heard about teams struggling to shoot in football stadiums. What helps offset that? Size. And these two teams have plenty of it.

The average height of the starters in Arizona-Michigan is 79.5 inches, making it the second-tallest Final Four matchup in the past 50 years, according to CBS Sports research. Arizona uses its positional size to dominate the offensive glass, while Michigan's size fuels one of the most efficient two-point offenses in the country.

If both teams relied heavily on 3-point shooting, there might be concern about replicating regular-season production in a venue like Lucas Oil Stadium. That's not the case here -- particularly for Arizona, which operates more inside-out.

That said, this matchup also features the nation's top two defenses. For our favorite pick, the expectation is a first half that reflects the anticipated pace and scoring, followed by a second half where adjustments lead to more stops and a slower tempo.

With a full-game total of 157.5 requiring sustained offensive production over 40 minutes, the focus instead is on the first half. Pick: 1H Over 74