South Korea and Turkey in 2002. Ukraine in 2006. Ghana and Paraguay in 2010. Costa Rica in 2014. Croatia in 2018. Morocco in 2022. We've seen dark horse teams emerge at every World Cup since the turn of the century and the 2026 edition will be no different, especially with 16 additional countries in the mix. While none of the teams listed above went on to actually win the World Cup from their longshot positions, they would've still provided tremendous value for soccer bettors in futures markets.
So which team is a good longshot to target in 2026?
While it may be fun to hypothesize about dart throws on teams like Egypt (+30000) or Canada (+20000), there should be some semblance of realism with this exercise. I'm going to focus on Switzerland, a team that has achieved a strong run of results in recent years and has the hallmarks of a darkhorse capable of upending the tournament.
World Cup 2026 futures odds for Switzerland (via FanDuel)
- To win the World Cup: +6500
- To reach the World Cup final: +2000
- To reach the semifinal: +870
- To reach the quarterfinal: +290
- To reach the Round of 16: -144
Switzerland enters this tournament looking to bounce back from a humbling exit at the 2022 event in the Round of 16, when it lost 6-1 to Portugal. The country has never been considered a true contender to win a World Cup or even challenge for a deep run, though it is a consistent Round of 16 threat of late. The Swiss have exited the World Cup in the Round of 16 in four of the last five World Cups but they don't have a rich soccer history. At one point, they did not qualify for six straight World Cups. That is a forgotten era.
The current Swiss team has made the quarterfinals of the European Championship in each of the last two editions. They lost both quarterfinal games in penalty shootouts, so it's plausible to think they could've been in the semifinals twice had one or two shots gone their way. In 2021, they took out France in penalties in the Round of 16. In 2024, they defeated defending Euro champions Italy in the Round of 16. This shows they have the talent and capability to compete with the best of the best in high-stakes contests.
Good form and defense travel
If you look at Switzerland's run up to this tournament, you can see reasons for optimism. The side took out both Mexico and the United States in friendlies last summer in Salt Lake City and Nashville, respectively, before returning to Europe. The Swiss won four of their six FIFA World Cup qualifying matches and the other two were draws. They were scoring goals for fun in the home games, which continued to be the case in a 4-3 loss to Germany in a recent friendly. That's Switzerland's only setback in its last 10 international matches.
Regardless of who your opponents are, allowing only two goals through World Cup qualifying is not a fluke. Combine that with the experience Switzerland has on the back line and you can see a defense which could carry this squad through the knockout round, just like Morocco in 2022. All four of Switzerland's first-choice defenders have 50 or more international appearances, highlighted by Ricardo Rodriguez and Manuel Akanji. Even though veteran goalkeeper Yann Sommer won't be between the posts, Gregor Kobel has been a stellar replacement. Kobel had 15 clean sheets in 34 appearance for Borussia Dortmund in the latest domestic season. When you have a back line and goalkeeper capable of slowing down the world's best attacks, you can build frustration for your opponent and keep yourself in the match.
Continuity and experience matter
Kobel is a relative newcomer but has experience playing for a top club in Germany, so he should be ready for the bright lights. In addition to the four primary defenders, Switzerland has four more starters with 50+ appearances in its lineup. Granit Xhaka, who will captain the side, has appeared in more than 140 games. Remo Freuler has played in more than 80, as has striker Breel Embolo. Ruben Vargas has 60 appearances under his belt. Manager Murat Yakin has been overseeing things since 2021 and has built on the success former manager Vladimir Petkovic had at Euro 2020 (played in 2021). Add in midfielders Denis Zakaria and Djibril Sow and you've got 10 players who have played a lot of games together with good results.
While this doesn't necessarily automatically translate to World Cup success, continuity and experience help against countries who might have superior talent but little chemistry. You can drop the 11 best players in the world on a pitch but there's little guarantee they'll be able to dominate the opposition from the opening whistle. Switzerland has built itself into a consistently competent unit with these players, and this is likely their last major tournament together. They'll want to make it count.
A relatively easy path in the bracket
Because Canada is playing all its matches at home, Switzerland isn't a bigger favorite to win Group B. However, I have little doubt the Swiss do prevail in this group. They are the most talented, experienced team and won't face Canada, likely their stiffest competition for the top spot in Group B, until the final matchday.
If we assume Switzerland goes on to win Group B, its Round of 32 matchup comes against a third-place squad from a different group. Even if there's some wacky results in other groups, it's highly unlikely we see a giant rolling up against Switzerland in this game. That puts the Swiss into the Round of 16 without really facing a top tier team.
The most likely Round of 16 opponent for Switzerland would be the Group K winner, who is also facing a third-place team in the Round of 32. That likely means either Portugal or Colombia. You know the Swiss could love to see Portugal and return the favor from the knockout round loss in 2022, but I'd back them against Colombia as well. Colombia did have a strong run to the Copa America final in 2024 but looked shaky in its last few friendlies. A win here would put Switzerland in the quarterfinal round.
This is where things can get complicated for Switzerland and bettors who like longshots. The Swiss have a potential matchup with Argentina in the quarterfinal round if we assume everything plays out as we'd expect it to. This is probably where I'd think the run ends. Argentina has won the last two Copa Americas and the last World Cup. The burden of trying to get Lionel Messi an international trophy is off the team's back, and it is playing freely with tremendous results. Switzerland, even with its experience and stellar defense, would be a sizable underdog in a hypothetical matchup with Argentina.
Switzerland best bets for World Cup 2026
Taking Switzerland to win Group B doesn't require much convincing. They'll have more than enough to get by Qatar and Bosnia & Herzegovina even if they don't play at their best, and they'll ideally be well-situated before playing Canada in the final group match. There's already value here considered the Swiss have the most talent and experience in this group.
I don't see any third-place team which comes through to the Round of 32 having a big run, barring some shockers within the group stages. Switzerland is likely to be favored here, so backing this team to make the Round of 16 isn't much of a stretch either. The value proposition begins with Switzerland to reach the quarterfinal at +290, which could also serve a potential revenge game against Portugal. I'd take Switzerland as the more experienced, in-form team over Colombia as well if that ended up being the matchup.
Don't expect Switzerland to be favored in a potential quarterfinal game against Argentina if that was the matchup. However, if you've already picked the Swiss to go this far, you might as well throw a lesser wager on them to get to the semifinal at +870. It would be their best performance at any World Cup but their recent trajectory shows they haven't been far off from this stage.
