WNBA predictions, picks today: Thursday's best bets include A'ja Wilson prop from Mercury vs. Aces

There are just three weeks left of the WNBA regular season, and Thursday, Aug. 21's slate features two matchups between championship contenders—the Minnesota Lynx at the Atlanta Dream at 7:30 p.m. ET and the Phoenix Mercury at the Las Vegas Aces at 10 p.m. ET on Prime Video. 

If you're interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites for Thursday, Aug. 21, then make sure to see today's WNBA best bets at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook. If you're new to betting on the WNBA, we'd recommend reading this WNBA betting guide.

Today's WNBA picks:

• A'ja Wilson Over 36.5 points + rebounds -106 (1 unit, FD)
  
• Sky +15.5 -112 (0.5 units, DK)
• Sky 1H +8.5 -105 (0.5 units, DK)

A'ja Wilson Over 36.5 points + rebounds

You almost never see this line in the WNBA, but Wilson has been playing at a different level of late. In the past six games, she's averaging 29.0 points and 14.0 rebounds per game. She's had at least 41 points + rebounds in five of those six games, with the lone exception being 33 against the Liberty when she shot 3-of-14 from the field. 

One of those efforts over that recent span came against this same Mercury team, where Wilson had 30 points and 16 rebounds in an 86-83 Aces road win last Friday. In her other game against the Mercury this season on June 29, Wilson had 26 points and 18 rebounds. The Mercury don't really have the ideal player to defend Wilson (to be fair, not many teams do), and she's been able to torch them in two upset wins. 

Phoenix is second in pace, fourth in 3-pointers attempted per game and ninth in offensive rebounding percentage. So I'm banking on the Mercury getting a bunch of outside shots up and a lot of rebounding opportunities for Wilson. These two teams are currently tied for fourth place in the WNBA standings, and fourth place gets home-court advantage in the first round, so this is a huge matchup where Wilson will be relied upon heavily. 

Sky +15.5 and 1H +8.5

No WNBA team is playing worse than the Sky, as they've lost 13 of their past 14 games. But Chicago was playing most of that stretch without Angel Reese and Ariel Atkins, the two top players on the squad. Reese and Atkins played together last game against the Seattle Storm (a 6-point loss), the first time they've done so since a 13-point loss to the Minnesota Lynx back on July 14.

I do think 15 points is high for a healthier Sky team against a New York Liberty squad that has struggled without Breanna Stewart. Stewart has been ruled out again on Thursday, as she's been sidelined since exiting with a leg injury in a July 26 game against the Los Angeles Sparks. 

In the 11 games since, the Liberty have not won a single game by more than 11 points and have gone 5-6 straight up. It's not like it's been a brutal schedule either, as five of those contests have come against teams in the basement of the WNBA standings (7-27 Connecticut Sun and 9-27 Dallas Wings), teams they each lost to once over that stretch. Those losses came before Emma Meesseman joined the team, but the Liberty weren't able to dominate the Sun or Wings even with Meesseman suited up.

I'm splitting my Sky bet up with half a unit on full game and the other half a unit on first half, simply because I've seen this team wilt in too many instances after halftime this season. But Chicago is a different team when Atkins and Reese both play, so I'm fine risking a full unit overall on a line that, in my opinion, is too high.