WNBA predictions, picks today: Monday's best bets include Sun vs. Liberty play

There are two games on the Monday, Aug. 25 WNBA slate, with the New York Liberty at home against the Connecticut Sun at 7 p.m. ET, while the Las Vegas Aces face the Chicago Sky on NBA TV at 8 p.m. ET. The big news of the day is that Breanna Stewart will return for the first time since injuring her knee against the Los Angeles Sparks on July 26. The Liberty have dropped four of their past five contests, so they'll be happy to have Stewart back on the floor.

If you're interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites for Monday, Aug. 25, then make sure to see today's WNBA best bets at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook. If you're new to betting on the WNBA, we'd recommend reading this WNBA betting guide.

Today's WNBA picks:

• Kamilla Cardoso Under 8.5 rebounds +114 (1 unit, FD)
• Sun +11.5 -110 (1 unit, DK)

Kamilla Cardoso Under 8.5 rebounds

There is a stark difference in Cardoso's rebounding numbers when Angel Reese (12.2 rebounds per game) is healthy and when Reese is sidelined. In games that Reese has missed, Cardoso is averaging 10.1 rebounds. In games that Reese has played, Cardoso is averaging 7.5 boards. Reese returned from a back injury three games ago, and Cardoso has pulled down 7, 15 and 6 rebounds in those respective contests. 

On the surface, you'd think this is a plus rebounding matchup for Cardoso, as the Aces rank 10th in the WNBA in rebounding percentage. But the Aces have been much better at grabbing boards since acquiring NaLyssa Smith from the Wings. Over the past 10 games, the Aces are tied for second (with the Sky) in rebounding percentage. Now many of those Sky games were without Reese, but the Aces have become a much better rebounding team than the majority of the WNBA after being one of the worst teams at it earlier in the season. 

Sun +11.5

This line feels like it's relying too much on preseason priors still and not enough on each team's current form. Breanna Stewart is listed as questionable, and she could play for the first time since suffering her knee injury back on July 26. If she does play, I doubt she gets a full workload, and Sandy Brondello will have to figure out how to tinker her rotations, as this will be the first time Stewart and Emma Meesseman will be playing together. 

If Stewart doesn't play, and I don't think the Liberty are going to rush her back for a home game against the 9-27 Sun, this just isn't the same Liberty team. Over the past 10 games (since Meesseman has had a full workload), the Liberty's net rating is 0.0 and the Sun's is -3.4. The Sun actually have the WNBA's fourth-best defensive rating (102.1) over that span, ahead of the seventh-place Liberty (105.5). 

The Sun have won four of their past five games, with the one exception being a 6-point loss in overtime to the Fever after Connecticut blew a 21-point lead in the second half. This is the best basketball the Sun have played all season. I think the Sun will also be confident heading into this matchup since they've played the Liberty well in two games this month—a 16-point win on Aug. 1 and a 9-point loss on Aug. 3. Over their past 10 games, the Liberty haven't won by more than 11 points once either.