WNBA picks today: Experts share Fever vs. Mercury predictions, props for July 30
Experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai lock in their WNBA best bets for Wednesday's matchup between the Indiana Fever and the Phoenix Mercury
The Indiana Fever and Phoenix Mercury square off for the first time this season on Wednesday night with tipoff set for 7 p.m. ET. The game will air on ESPN3. The Fever remain without star guard Caitlin Clark, who is out indefinitely with a groin injury. The Mercury, who dealt with some injury issues before the All-Star break, are completely intact for this contest. The Fever have won two in a row, both double-digit victories. The Mercury snapped a three-game losing streak with an 88-72 victory over the Washington Mystics.
If you're interested in WNBA betting, WNBA odds and WNBA player props, you need to check out what experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have identified as their best bets for Fever vs. Mercury on Wednesday.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).
Here are Wetzel and Barzilai's best bets for Indiana vs. Phoenix:
Fever vs. Mercury picks:
- Fever +4
- Aliyah Boston 4+ assists
Fever +4
The Fever continue to be without Caitlin Clark, while the Mercury are fully healthy for the fourth game in a row after spending the majority of the season shorthanded. While all signs point to things going Phoenix's way on that front, the sportsbooks have once again overcorrected for that.
Indiana is 3-0 against the spread as home underdogs this season, and this game sets up a perfect opportunity to extend that streak. This game should be within a possession, so take the Fever to keep it close and cover +4 against the Mercury.
Aliyah Boston 4+ assists
While the books continue to adjust Fever spreads too much for Clark's absence, this is a line they continue to not adjust enough. Boston has reached four assists in 10 of 14 games without Clark, including four of the last five.
Now she gets a matchup with the Mercury, who allow the second highest assist rate in the league at 71.2%. In a game with an already close spread that arguably should be closer, expect Boston to get plenty of minutes.
