It's another getaway day around the major leagues on Thursday, so we have three matinees. I will focus on the last of them at 2:10 p.m. ET as the Chicago White Sox conclude a series in Houston. It definitely could have American League playoff seeding ramifications, with both currently leading their respective divisions. Bet $5+ on any of Thursday's games and get $200 in bonus bets when you bet at DraftKings Sportsbook:
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White Sox-Astros MLB same-game parlay
- Houston no bat bottom 9
- Alt Under 10.5
DraftKings SGP price: +140 (subject to change)
The AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (83-56) have a 3.5-game cushion atop the entire Junior Circuit, and it would take a massive collapse for them to blow that. They're too well-managed for that to happen, and the Rays are -370 to be the top seed. The Central-leading White Sox and West-leading Astros, meanwhile, are battling for the No. 2, which would mean a first-round bye instead of hosting the No. 6 seed in a Wild-Card Round series.
Chicago (73-66) holds a 2.5-game lead over Houston (71-69), with the Astros clinching the season series and that potentially valuable tiebreaker thanks to Wednesday night's 2-0 victory. But the White Sox are still -210 for that No. 2 (were -600 yesterday) and the Astros +380 (were +600). Houston still has a fight just to win the AL West on its hands.
I expect the Pale Hose to hang on in the AL Central and earn the No. 2 because they have the third-easiest remaining schedule by opponents' combined winning percentage. A series against Cleveland is their only one remaining against a team that currently has a winning record. The Astros are middle of the pack in terms of remaining slate. They are +105 favorites to be the third seed, with Chicago at +450.
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White Sox penny-pinching owner Jerry Reinsdorf, in a rarity, agreed to take on a big contract at the trade deadline when his team acquired starting pitcher Luis Castillo from Seattle, but it only really cost money (he's owed about $24 million next year) because the prospects sent out were lower-tier guys. Castillo was struggling with the M's and that has continued with his new club at 1-1 with a 6.45 ERA in five starts.
The 33-year-old had one dominant start vs. the Reds but otherwise has been shelled and not lasted even five full innings in the other four â the White Sox don't have the pitching yet to make playoff noise. Castillo made two appearances earlier this year while with Seattle against Houston and was 1-0 despite a 10.00 ERA and .341 opponents' batting average in 9.0 innings.
The model has Castillo at 5.7 innings, 4.8 strikeouts, 5.0 hits allowed and 2.6 earned runs allowed. I'm going to have to play something props-wise on overwhelming AL MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez, considering he is 12-for-24 with five homers career off of Castillo.
Houston is +200 to miss the playoffs entirely, but I highly doubt that, because the rest of the AL West is so flawed that I expect the Astros to pull it out if only on the back of Alvarez, who is now +400 to win the AL Triple Crown with No at -500. Interesting pricing considering the Cuban leads in all three categories: (.317 BA, 37 HR; tied for first and 94 RBI). He's not going to win the MLB overall Triple Crown, but those prices are for the AL only.
What a boon it would be for the Astros to see the return of former All-Star third baseman Carlos Correa. He was originally ruled out for the season following May surgery to repair a torn tendon in his left ankle, but Correa is now looking like he might make it back for the last couple of weeks of the regular season. He was cleared to swing the bat about a month ago and is now running at 95 percent intensity. I still don't think Houston has the starting pitching to make much noise, either, but Correa certainly would help the lineup.
Ace right-hander Hunter Brown takes the mound today, and he'd surely be the Game 1 guy in any playoff series as long as he's on the right rest schedule. Brown (4-3, 3.33 ERA) missed nearly three months injured early on but is rounding into ace form having allowed three earned or fewer in seven straight starts. Brown struck out a season-high 10 last time out in beating the Mets.
He didn't allow a homer in that outing for the first time since July 25 ⦠when Brown dominated the White Sox on the South Side with two hits allowed over seven shutout innings. He whiffed seven and walked none to improve to 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA in five career starts against the White Sox. The model has Brown forecast tonight at 5.4 innings, 5.7 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 2.3 earned runs.
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Let's build on our +114 cash Wednesday on Orioles-Rockies. It's a getaway day, so I'd expect a regular or two on each side to sit. While it's hard to trust Castillo all that much regarding the total, I doubt the Pale Hose do much against Brown and Houston's bullpen is in good shape in terms of availability. Normally, I'd throw Under 1.5 first-inning runs in here to boost the price, but I worry about an Alvarez two-run bottom in the bottom of the first. The model has Astros by a score of 4.9-4.5. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
