Cabo Verde have been the Cinderella of the 2026 World Cup.
With an estimated population of 525,000 â roughly the size of Sacramento, Calif. â the Blue Sharks, led by overnight goalkeeper sensation Vozinha, drew all three of their group matches, including their tournament opener against powerhouse Spain. That was enough to advance to the Round of 32 and make Cabo Verde the smallest nation by population ever to advance to the knockout round.
But how much longer can Cabo Verde keep dancing? The Blue Sharks' magical run faces an enormous test on Friday in a Round of 32 match against Lionel Messi and defending World Cup champions Argentina. Messi and Co. rolled through group play, winning all three of their matches and outscoring their opponents 8-1.
Argentina are massive -3500 favorites to advance to the quarterfinals over Cabo Verde (+1200).
While Argentina vs. Cabo Verde is the marquee attraction on Friday, there are other options on a sporting landscape that includes two other World Cup matches and 13 MLB games. Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet for Friday, July 3. All times Eastern.
World Cup best bets, where to watch
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde
Time: 6 p.m. | Location: Miami | TV: FOX/Telemundo | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick -- Expert: Cabo Verde +2.25 -114 (Matt Severance)
Cabo Verde have an xG against (expected goals against) of 4.81 in this World Cup, which is the most of any team to make the Round of 32. That's a testament to how well Vozinha has played in goal. The 40-year-old made seven saves in his clean sheet against Spain and has saved 10 of 12 shots overall. Even if this match gets out of hand, the Blue Sharks can cover against an Argentina side that may pull starters with an eye on the Round of 16. "It does not matter whether Argentina wins by 1 or 5," Severance says.
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Colombia vs. Ghana
Time: 9:30 p.m. | Location: Kansas City, Mo. | TV: FOX/Telemundo | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine lean -- Expert: Under 2.5 total goals -132 (Martin Green)
A berth in the Round of 16 against Switzerland will be on the line when Colombia and Ghana battle. So far in the tournament both sides have played tight, low-scoring matches. Four of their six matches have featured two goals or fewer, and five of the six have been decided by one goal or have been draws. The pressure of a knockout match could add to even more conservative play. "It could be a tight, tense game, as Ghana are well-drilled in defense," Green says.
MLB best bets, where to watch
Giants at Rockies
Time: 8:10 p.m. | Location: Denver | TV: MLB.TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick -- Model: Giants -155 | Expert: Giants -149 (Adam Thompson)
San Francisco has a significant edge in starting pitching entering this matchup. The Giants' Logan Webb (5-5, 3.09 ERA) is coming off a month in which he went 3-1 with a 0.71 ERA over five starts. For his efforts, he was named the National League Pitcher of the Month. Meanwhile, Thompson notes that Colorado starter Ryan Feltner (2-2, 4.42) has not gone past six innings this season. "San Francisco's OPS the last two weeks on the road (.840) and against right-handers (.827) is top-tier and roughly 100 points above Colorado's similar splits," he says. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, agrees. It says the Giants have a 62.0% chance to win and assigns a B grade to the San Francisco money line (-155).
Rays at Astros
Time: 8:15 p.m. | Location: Houston | TV: Apple TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick -- Model: Rays -114
Maybe no pitcher was happier to see the calendar turn to July than the Astros' Spencer Arrighetti (7-4, 4.00). During June, he went 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA. His last three starts have been particularly bad: 10.80 ERA. That's bad news for Friday, when he faces Junior Caminero and the hottest team in the majors, Tampa Bay, which is riding an eight-game winning streak, the longest in all of baseball. Caminero has eight home runs in his last seven games. The SportsLine Projection Model says the Rays have a 54.0% chance to win and gives a C grade to the Tampa Bay money line (-114).
Brewers at Diamondbacks
Time: 9:45 p.m. | Location: Phoenix | TV: Apple TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine pick -- Model: Over 8.5 (-127)
Milwaukee's Kyle Harrison (8-1, 2.57) has won seven straight decisions without a loss, but he has been much worse on the road (4.20 ERA) than at home (1.53) this season. He also is 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA in four appearances against Arizona in his career. Meanwhile, Diamondbacks rookie Jose Cabrera (0-1, 3.60) was touched up a bit in his second career appearance, giving up four runs on seven hits in five innings against the Rays on Saturday. The SportsLine Projection Model says there's a 65.7% chance the teams combine for nine runs or more and assigns a B grade to Over 8.5 (-127).
