Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Should you back surging Cardinals starter?

There's a modest nine-game MLB slate on tap Thursday, with only three contests starting at 7 p.m. or later. From a betting perspective, value positions can often be difficult to pinpoint amid such a modest card, but the SportsLine Projection Model has you covered.

The model has identified the top pitcher strikeout proposition bets in the MLB betting market, and has identified strong plays for all three late games, which include the Boston Red Sox visiting the New York Yankees (7: 15 p.m.), the Houston Astros visiting the Baltimore Orioles (7:15 p.m.) and the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the St. Louis Cardinals (7:35 p.m.).

Cardinals starter Sonny Gray (11-6, 4.30 ERA) is the marquee strikeout maven on the late-game slate, with his 155 strikeouts ranking No. 15 in all of MLB and the most of any starter on the nine-game Thursday MLB card.

Top sportsbooks have set Gray's over/under strikeout total at 5.5, but is the Over an automatic play? See below to find this answer, along with the model's other top strikeout props for Thursday. The model's plays are recommended when a player prop registers at least 4 stars on the model's 5-star rating scale. 

 Here are the model's top strikeout prop plays for Thursday, August 21:

Luis Gil Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Red Sox (7:15 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.stars
Model projection: 5. strikeouts

The right-hander will make just his fourth start of the season but made 29 starts for the Yankees last year. The model incorporates this extensive sample size into Thursday's projections and doesn't see Gil getting a lot of whiffs from the Boston lineup. In Gil's last eight starts in which the Yankees are favored, his strikeout prop has gone under and he has averaged just 3.9 Ks in those outings.

Jason Alexander Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Orioles (7:15 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection:  strikeouts

Houston's offense has struggled mightily, so the Astros will need Alexander to deliver a strong outing in order to get back to winning ways. Alexander fanned six hitters in his last start against the Orioles, and he's logged at least six strikeouts in two of his last three starts. He has also gone Over his strikeout line three times in the last five games.

Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Rays (7:35 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts

Gray has struck out 22 hitters over his last three starts and the model likes him to go Over on his strikeout line against the Rays Thursday evening. Tampa Bay is tied for 19th in team strikeouts, so this lineup does enough chasing to give the Cardinals veteran a good chance of topping this mark. He's gone Over his strikeouts line in six of his last 10 outings and has averaged 6.5 strikeouts per game in that span.