Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Shohei Ohtani against Reds
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Wednesday's 15-game schedule
The New York Mets can complete a sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies and cut their deficit in the National League East to four games when the rivals square off on Wednesday at Citi Field. The Mets (71-61) have won the first two games of the series, 13-3 and 6-5, and now trail the Phillies (76-56) by five games in the division. After Wednesday, the teams will face each other four more times, Sept. 8-11 in Philadelphia.
Wednesday's pitching matchup features Phillies veteran righty Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.44 ERA) taking on Mets rookie righty Nolan McLean (2-0, 1.46), who will be making his third career major league start. Walker has pitched well this month, going 1-1 with a 2.28 ERA. Meanwhile McLean has been excellent in his two big league outings thus far, giving up just two runs while striking out 15 in 12⅓ innings.
Top sportsbooks have set Walker's total pitcher strikeout prop at 3.5 and McLean's at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Walker Over 3.5 and McLean Over 4.5 as 3.5-star plays on its 5-star scale.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Wednesday's schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including two that would pay plus money.
Framber Valdez Under 6.5 strikeouts vs. Rockies (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.6 strikeouts
The 31-year-old Astros lefty is in arguably the worst slump of his career. In four August starts, Valdez (11-7, 3.32) is 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA. He has gone Under 6.5 strikeouts in each of those starts, averaging 3.0 strikeouts a game. In addition Houston has lost each of his last five starts. Valdez's strikeout rate is down to 23.5%, his lowest since the 2022 season.
Nick Lodolo Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Dodgers (8:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
The Reds lefty is set to return from the 15-day IL for Wednesday's start. Lodolo (8-6, 3.05) has not pitched since Aug. 4 while dealing with a blister on his left index finger. Prior to that last outing, he struck out 11 against this same Dodgers team while allowing just two runs in 5⅓ innings on July 29. That was the 13th time in 22 starts that he had gone Over 4.5 strikeouts. The SportsLine Projection Model also notes that Lodolo has gone Over his pitcher strikeouts line eight times over the last 10 games when Cincinnati was not favored, averaging 6.1 pitcher strikeouts per game.
Shohei Ohtani Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Reds (8:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.3 strikeouts
The Dodgers have been taking their time stretching out their two-way Dodgers star on the mound since his return from elbow surgery. Two starts ago, Ohtani (0-1, 4.61) threw a season-high 80 pitches, but in his last start, he threw just 66, giving up five runs on nine hits while striking out three in four innings. On July 30 he faced the Reds and struck out four in three innings. He has gone Under his strikeouts total in six of his 10 starts this season, averaging 3.5 per game.
