Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Rockies starter against Padres

The Seattle Mariners attempt to strengthen their playoff outlook and extend their winning streak to six games when they visit the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday for the opener of their four-game series. The Mariners (78-68), who are coming off a three-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals, trail the Houston Astros (79-67) by one game for first place in the American League West but own a 1.5-game lead over the Texas Rangers (77-70) for the final AL wild card spot.

Seattle needed 13 innings to defeat St. Louis 4-2 on Wednesday as Leo Rivas, who entered the game in the 11th as a pinch runner, led off the bottom of the frame with a two-run homer. The triumph was the fifth in a row for the Mariners, who had lost four straight and six of seven prior to the winning streak.

Bryce Miller (4-5, 5.53 ERA) looks to keep Seattle rolling when he takes the mound in the series opener. The 27-year-old right-hander has had mixed results against the Angels this season, striking out six over five innings en route to victory in April before recording only two strikeouts across five frames of a loss in June.

Los Angeles, which has won three of its last four contests, counters with Jose Soriano (10-10, 4.07). The 26-year-old Dominican righty settled for a no-decision after allowing two runs and fanning five batters over six innings on July 25 in his lone start against the Mariners this season.

Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for Miller at 5.5 (Over -121, Under -107) and Soriano at 4.5 (Over -138, Under +106). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Miller's Under 5.5 strikeouts prop as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Soriano's Over 4.5 as a 3.5-star play.

However, the model has found better value on Thursday's nine-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars and two others at 4.5 stars, including one that returns plus money. Here they are:

McCade Brown Under 3.5 strikeouts (-146) vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.3 strikeouts

Brown is seeking his first victory as he makes the fourth start of his major-league career. Since the 25-year-old rookie right-hander has yet to work more than four innings, his strikeout totals have been low. After fanning a total of five batters over 7 2/3 frames in his first two turns, Brown finished with only one strikeout in 1 2/3 innings against the Padres last Saturday. San Diego's lineup has been the most difficult in the National League to strike out this season (1,037), so it's unlikely Brown will reach the four-strikeout mark for the first time on Thursday.

Ian Seymour Over 5.5 strikeouts (+105) vs. White Sox (2:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts

Seymour, also a rookie, will be making just his third major-league start. The 26-year-old left-hander pitched only five innings in both of his first two turns but registered eight strikeouts each time. Seymour came out of the bullpen in his most recent appearance and still posted an impressive strikeout total as he fanned five batters over four frames against the Cleveland Guardians last Friday.

Cristian Javier Over 3.5 strikeouts (-110) vs. Blue Jays (3:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts

Javier is making just his sixth start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2024. The 28-year-old Dominican righty recorded four or more strikeouts in three of his first five turns this season and is coming off an outing against the New York Yankees last Thursday where he fanned four batters over 4 1/3 innings. Javier notched at least four strikeouts in two of his first three career meetings with the Blue Jays, who have struck out the fewest amount of times in the majors this year (982) but have whiffed 16 times in the first two contests of this three-game series.