Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Rockies starter against Marlins
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Inside the Lines team's model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Wednesday's 15-game schedule
The New York Mets continue their push for a National League wild card berth when they host the San Diego Padres in the second game of a three-game series on Wednesday at Citi Field in Queens. The Mets (78-73) are clinging onto the third and final wild card spot in the NL, 1.5 games ahead of the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, the Padres (82-69) are four games ahead of New York for the second wild card berth.
On Wednesday Mets lefty David Peterson (9-5, 3.77 ERA) squares off against San Diego's Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.73). Peterson has a 6.69 ERA over his last eight starts, and New York has lost six of them. Conversely, Pivetta is coming off one of his best starts of the year: seven scoreless innings while striking out eight against the Reds.
Top sportsbooks have set Pivetta's total pitcher strikeout prop at 5.5 and Peterson's at 4.5. The Inside the Lines team's model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Pivetta Over 5.5 as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Peterson Over 4.5 as a 4-star play.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Wednesday's schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout props that the model has rated at 5 stars, including one at plus money.
Mason Barnett Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Red Sox (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts
The 24-year-old Athletics rookie is set to make his fourth career start after being called up last month. After struggling in his debut, Barnett (1-1, 8.53) has struck out 12 over his past two starts, including an eight-strikeout game against the Angels two starts ago. Over three seasons in the minors, he showed swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 434 batters in 374⅔ innings. On Wednesday he will face a Boston team that averages 8.75 strikeouts per game, the eighth most in baseball.
Ian Seymour Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts
After working out of the bullpen for much of the season, the 26-year-old Tampa Bay lefty has started or been the bulk pitcher over his last four appearances and has excelled. During that stretch Seymour (3-2, 3.16) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts all four times (striking out eight, eight, five and five batters) and has a 1.86 ERA. Wednesday will be the Blue Jays' first look at Seymour.
McCade Brown Under 3.5 strikeouts vs. Marlins (8:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.3 strikeouts
This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. The 25-year-old Rockies rookie has struggled since being called up last month to make his major league debut, going 0-4 with a 9.88 ERA. Brown has gone Under 3.5 strikeouts in three of his four starts, including both of his starts at Coors Field. On Wednesday he faces a Miami team that averages just 7.74 strikeouts per game, the fourth fewest in all of baseball.
