Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Rangers starter against Orioles
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Tuesday's 15-game schedule
Texas Rangers ace Jacob deGrom (8-2, 2.08 ERA) has been incredible this season, and he turned up the heat in June. In five June outings, he tossed 32 innings and allowed just five earned runs for a sparkling 1.41 ERA over that stretch. On Tuesday night, deGrom faces Brandon Young (0-2, 7.11 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles at 8:05 p.m. ET.
The top sportsbooks have set deGrom's total strikeout player prop at 7.5, while Young's is 3.5. Both arms are the only two 5-star strikeout props from Tuesday's slate for the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Which way is it siding for deGrom and Young?
Here are the three strikeout props that the model has found MLB betting value on Tuesday's 15-game schedule.
Shane Baz Under 6.5 strikeouts (-152) vs. Athletics (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts
The SportsLine Projection Model's numbers suggest that sportsbooks have set this total way too high. The Rays righty (8-3, 4.37) has gone Under 6.5 strikeouts in 13 of 16 starts this season, including 12 of his last 13. In addition, Baz has been much worse at home (5.70 ERA) than on the road (2.91) this season. In his last five home games, Baz has averaged just 3.8 strikeouts per game.
Jacob deGrom Under 7.5 strikeouts (-143) vs. Orioles (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
The model continues to fade deGrom (8-2, 2.08), who has gone Over this number just three times in his last 19 starts, going back to last season. The Rangers righty's strikeout percentage has dropped every year since a career-high 45.1% in 2021, bottoming out at 25.9% this season. In addition, Baltimore will get its second look in last than a week at deGrom, who struck out seven in 7 innings against the Orioles on Wednesday.
Brandon Young Over 3.5 strikeouts (-115) vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5 strikeouts
The Orioles rookie righthander will start against Texas in place of Charlie Morton (elbow tendinitis). Young has made just three major league starts this season, going Over 3.5 strikeouts only once. But he has shown swing-and-miss stuff in the minors, striking out 332 strikeouts in 282 innings. In addition, he is set to face a Texas club that has struggled this season at the plate, with a .226 average and a .656 OPS.
