Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Mariners starter against Rockies
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Wednesday's 15-game schedule
The lead in the American League Central will be on the line when the red-hot Cleveland Guardians and the slumping Detroit Tigers square off on Wednesday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. In the first game of the crucial three-game series, the Guardians beat the Tigers, 5-2, for their 16th win in their last 18 games. With the victory Cleveland (85-72) tied Detroit, which has lost seven in a row, atop the division. The Guardians, however, own first place because of the tiebreaker.
Wednesday's pitching matchup pits the Guardians' Tanner Bibee (11-11, 4.34 ERA) against the Tigers' Jack Flaherty (8-14, 4.60). Bibee is 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in September, while Flaherty is 1-1 with a 0.90 ERA over his last two starts.
Top sportsbooks have set Bibee's total pitcher strikeout prop at 6.5 and Flaherty's at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Flaherty Over 5.5 as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Bibee Under 6.5 as a 3.5-star play.
However, neither play is among the model's top three pitcher strikeout props on Wednesday's schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars.
Dylan Cease Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Brewers (4:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.6 strikeouts
This is a very modest total for the veteran Padres righty. Cease (8-12, 4.64) has gone Over 5.5 strikeouts in 23 of 31 starts this season. He also has been a much better pitcher at home this year, going 7-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 110 strikeouts in 82⅓ innings. The last time he faced the Brewers, in June of last season, he struck out 10 in just 4⅔ innings. The SportsLine Projection Model also notes that Cease has gone Over his pitcher strikeout total in six of his last 10 games when competing against teams with a winning record, averaging 7.1 strikeouts.
Fraser Ellard Under 1.5 strikeouts vs. Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 0.2 strikeouts
This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. The 27-year-old lefty reliever will be serving as an opener for the White Sox against the Yankees. Ellard (0-2, 4.50) has served as an opener twice before this season, going just 1⅔ and 1⅓ innings in those appearances. On Wednesday he will see a New York team that crushes lefties, with a league-leading .791 OPS.
Luis Castillo Under 6.5 strikeouts vs. Rockies (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
This is a strangely high number for the Mariners veteran. Castillo (10-8, 3.63) has stayed Under 6.5 strikeouts 27 times in 31 starts this season and hasn't gone Over 6.5 strikeouts since July 23. Even though the Rockies strike out at a high rate, Castillo's strikeout rate is just 21.1%, according to Baseball Savant, the lowest of his career. Seattle's bullpen is well rested, so manager Dan Wilson will be able to pull Castillo at any hint of trouble, especially considering the team is just two games behind the Blue Jays for the best record in the AL.
