Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Dodgers starter against Giants
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Inside the Lines team's model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Thursday's 10-game schedule
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants square off Thursday night in the first of a four-game series between the two NL West rivals as the Dodgers inch closer to another division crown while the Giants are 2.5 games back of a wild card spot. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET.
The matchup has a great pitching battle on top, too, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto getting the ball for the Dodgers and Logan Webb starting for the Giants. Yamamoto has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last three starts while Webb has allowed 10 runs over his last two outings.
Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for Yamamoto at 7.5 (Over +112, Under -148) and Webb at 5.5 (Over +104, Under -136). These two are part of the model's top value plays for pitcher strikeouts as part of Thursday's 10-game schedule.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 7.5 strikeouts (-146) vs. Giants (10:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts
Yamamoto is due for a decline in strikeouts as he has fanned 10 batters in each of his last three starts, including one against the Giants last Friday. The 27-year-old Japanese right-hander had four consecutive six-strikeout outings prior to his current run. Yamamoto lasted only 4 2/3 innings In his only previous home start against San Francisco on June 13 and registered just four strikeouts.
Luis Castillo Over 4.5 strikeouts (+123) vs. Royals (2:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
Castillo has recorded five or more strikeouts in four consecutive starts and six of his last seven. The 32-year-old Dominican righty has gone Over his projected total for Thursday in 21 of his 30 turns this season. Castillo, who has racked up 32 strikeouts across 40 2/3 frames in seven career starts versus the Royals, fanned five batters over six innings of a no-decision against the Los Angeles Angels in his last outing.
Logan Webb Over 5.5 strikeouts (+106) vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.2 strikeouts
Webb has averaged 6.6 strikeouts over his last 10 starts, recording at least six on six occasions during that span. The 28-year-old righty worked only four innings against the Dodgers in his last outing but still fanned five batters. He racked up seven strikeouts in each of his previous three turns and finished with six over 5 1/3 frames in his previous start versus Los Angeles back in July. Webb has registered 86 strikeouts across 101 2/3 innings in 19 career outings against the Dodgers.
