Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Astros starter against Angels
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Friday's 15-game schedule
The teams with the best two records in baseball collide in what could be a World Series preview when the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series on Friday. The Brewers (83-52) own the best record in baseball while the Blue Jays (78-56) have the second-best mark in the majors and the best record in the American League.
Friday's pitching matchup pits Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta (15-5, 2.68 ERA) against Toronto's Shane Bieber (1-0, 1.50). Peralta leads all of baseball in wins, while Bieber will be making his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery, which knocked him out for 16 months.
Top sportsbooks have set both Peralta's and Bieber's total pitcher strikeout prop at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Bieber Over 5.5 as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Peralta Over 5.5 as a 4-star play.
However, neither is one of the model's top three pitcher strikeout props on Friday's schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars.
Cristian Javier Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Angels (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
The 28-year-old Astros righty makes his fourth start since returning from Tommy John surgery earlier this month. In his previous three starts, Javier (1-1, 5.40) has struck out five, two and three batters. His last start was his worst yet: five runs on three hits in just two innings against the Orioles. According to Baseball Savant, Javier's four-seam is averaging 92.7 mph so far this season, the lowest since his rookie year of 2020.
Chris Paddack Over 2.5 strikeouts vs. Royals (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.0 strikeouts
This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. Paddack (5-11, 4.98) makes his sixth start for the Tigers since being acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline. The 28-year-old righty has gone Over 2.5 strikeouts in 16 of 26 starts this season between Minnesota and Detroit. On Friday, he is set to face a light-hitting Kansas City team that has scored just 523 runs this season, the fourth fewest in baseball.
Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Padres (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts
This is a reachable line for the 25-year-old righty. Matthews (3-4, 5.30) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in eight of 11 starts this season. The SportsLine Projection Model also notes he has gone Over his pitcher strikeouts market in five of the last six games when facing teams with a winning record, averaging 5.8 Ks in those contests. According to Baseball Savant, Matthews ranks in the 86th percentile in the majors in strikeout percentage at 28.5%.
