Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Twins starter against Blue Jays

Two teams with division title aspirations collide Monday, as the San Diego Padres visit the Seattle Mariners for the opener of a three-game series. San Diego (74-57) is tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the National League West after winning two of three at home against the reigning World Series champions over the weekend. The Padres are coming off an 8-2 loss to the Dodgers that ended their five-game winning streak, which followed a four-game slide that began with a trio of setbacks at Dodger Stadium.

Seattle (70-61) trails the Houston Astros by two games in the American League West but still occupies a wild card spot. The Mariners returned home to take two of three from the Athletics, including an 11-4 triumph on Sunday, after a 2-7 road trip during which they lost the final five contests.

JP Sears (8-10, 4.94 ERA) makes his third start for San Diego since being acquired from the Athletics at the trade deadline. The 29-year-old left-hander was tagged with the loss in his Padres debut but notched the win in his second outing despite recording only two strikeouts over six innings. Sears has lost his last six decisions against Seattle, including two this season in which he fanned 13 batters across 11 frames.

The Mariners counter with Bryce Miller (2-5, 5.87), who escaped with a no-decision against the Philadelphia Phillies last Tuesday in his first start in 2 1/2 months due to an elbow injury. The 27-year-old right-hander recorded four strikeouts over five innings in that outing but punched out just one batter across six frames in his lone career turn against the Padres last season.

The top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts prop for Miller (Over -124, Under -106) at 3.5 but have not yet set one for Sears. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Miller's Over 3.5 strikeouts prop as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale.

However, the model has found better value on Monday's 13-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars and two others at 4.5 stars with better odds. Here they are:

Ian Seymour Over 3.5 strikeouts (-158) vs. Guardians (6:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts

Seymour will be making his first major league start after beginning his rookie season with 12 relief appearances. The 26-year-old southpaw worked at least three innings in each of his last two outings, registering four strikeouts both times. Seymour has fanned 17 batters over 12 2/3 frames in five games this month after striking out nine across 10 2/3 innings in his first seven appearances.

Joe Ryan Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.2 strikeouts

Ryan ranks seventh in the AL with 159 strikeouts this season and went Over this total in each of his last two starts, fanning seven batters over 6 2/3 innings against the New York Yankees on Aug. 13 and six across four frames versus the Athletics last time out. The 29-year-old righty recorded six strikeouts over five innings in his first turn against the Blue Jays this year, giving him 17 across 18 frames in three career encounters with Toronto. Ryan has punched out 22 batters over 19 2/3 innings in his last three road starts.

Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-111) vs. Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.3 strikeouts

Rodriguez has racked up five or more strikeouts in three of his last five overall starts and four of his last five on the road. The 32-year-old Venezuelan lefty has fanned 15 batters over 17 1/3 innings in three career turns against the Brewers. Milwaukee has struck out the third-fewest number of times among NL teams this season (1,026) but has whiffed at least seven times in four of its last five contests.