Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Royals starter against Blue Jays

A potential World Series preview series begins Friday when the Detroit Tigers head to the City of Brotherly Love to face the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park . The Tigers (64-46) have cooled off of late but are still tied with the Blue Jays for the best record in the American League. They also lead the AL Central by nine games. As for the Phillies (61-47), they enter Friday in second place in the National League East, sitting a half game behind the Mets in the standings

Friday's pitching matchup sees Detroit hand the ball to veteran right-hander Jack Flaherty (6-10, 4.51 ERA) while Philadelphia turns to lefty Ranger Suarez (8-4, 2.59). Flaherty hasn't replicated his 2024 success this year, but he's coming off six shoutout innings versus the Blue Jays. Suarez is coming off 5.2 innings of one-run ball against the Yankees.

The top sportsbooks have set Flaherty's total strikeout player prop at 6.5 and Suárez's at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Flaherty Over 6.5 and Suárez Over 5.5 as 3.5-star plays on its 5-star scale.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday's 15-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4 stars or better. Here they are:

Michael Wacha Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts

This is a reasonable total for the 34-year-old vet. Wacha (4-9, 3.53) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 21 starts this season, including three of his last four games. He also has gone Over his pitcher strikeouts market in seven of his last 10 games, with an average of 4.6 pitcher strikeouts per game. In addition he has pitched well lately, having allowed just three total earned runs over his last three starts, which cover 16.1 innings.

Shane Smith Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts

The White Sox All-Star representative returns to the hill after an IL stint due to an injured ankle. Smith is 3-7 on the year with a 4.26 ERA, and he's gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 12 of his 18 starts this year, including two of his last three outings. On Friday, the rookie has a juicy matchup against an Angels team that strikes out 9.67 times per game, tops in baseball.

Anthony DeSclafani Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Athletics (10:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. DeSclafani joins Arizona's rotation after the Diamondbacks traded Merrill Kelly to the Rangers. DeSclafani has mostly served as a bullpen arm in a long relief role, but he'll get a chance to work as a starter moving forward. In his lone start of 2025, he struck out six Royals in four innings of work. He is averaging more than a strikeout an inning (24 in 23 1/3 innings). On Friday he faces an Athletics ballclub that strikes out 8.61 times per game, the ninth-highest total in the majors.