Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Red Sox starter against Blue Jays

The Cleveland Guardians look to complete their second sweep of the reeling Detroit Tigers in just over a week when the American League Central rivals clash Thursday at 6:40 p.m. ET in the finale of their three-game series at Progressive Field. Cleveland (86-72), which won all three contests of the set at Comerica Park from Sept. 16-18, has posted 5-2 and 5-1 victories over Detroit (85-73) at home to move one game ahead of the Tigers for first place in the division.

The Guardians, who have won 17 of their last 19 contests, trailed the Tigers by 15 1/2 games in early July and began this month 10 1/2 back. If they're able to hold on and win the AL Central, it would be the largest deficit overcome to capture a title since division play began in 1969. The current record is 14 games by the 1978 AL East champion New York Yankees.

Cleveland sends rookie Parker Messick (3-0, 2.08 ERA) to the mound Thursday as it attempts to complete the three-game sweep and increase its division lead over Detroit to two games. The 24-year-old left-hander, who will be making just his seventh major-league start, is coming off a no-decision against the Minnesota Twins in which he recorded a career-high nine strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings.

The Tigers, who have lost eight consecutive games and 11 of their last 12, have not announced a starter for the series finale.

Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts prop for Messick at 5.5 (Over +124, Under -158). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Messick's Under 5.5 strikeouts prop as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale.

However, the model has found better value on Thursday's 12-game schedule, as there are two pitcher strikeout player props that it has rated at 4.5 stars and one at 4 stars that returns plus money. Here they are:

Framber Valdez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-151) vs. Athletics (3:35 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts

Valdez has gone Over his projected strikeout total in seven of his last 13 starts against teams with a losing record, fanning an average of 6.7 batters. The 31-year-old Dominican southpaw has registered five or more strikeouts in each of the last three starts in which he lasted at least five innings. Valdez has struck out an average of five batters in 15 turns on the road this season.

Brayan Bello Over 3.5 strikeouts (-110) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts

Bello has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning against the Blue Jays over his career, recording 50 over 50 1/3 frames in 10 starts. The 26-year-old Dominican righty fanned just one batter across six innings in his only turn versus Toronto this season but struck out 21 over 20 1/3 frames in four meetings last year. He has retired George Springer 18 times in his career, nine via strikeout. Bello has racked up at least four strikeouts in four of his last six outings overall this campaign.

Mitch Farris Over 4.5 strikeouts (+121) vs. Royals (9:38 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts

Farris made his major-league debut against the Royals earlier this month and recorded only three strikeouts in five innings. The 24-year-old lefty fanned four batters over six frames versus the Athletics in his next turn, but he racked up seven strikeouts across only four innings against the Seattle Mariners on Sept. 13 and finished with five in 4 1/3 frames last time out versus the Colorado Rockies. Farris will be hoping Adam Frazier is in the lineup for Kansas City on Thursday, as he struck out the second baseman in both of his at-bats on Sept. 2.