Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Giants starter against Dodgers
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Friday's 15-game schedule
The lead in the American League West will be on the line when the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners open a massive three-game series on Friday at Daikin Park in Houston. With just nine games remaining in the regular season, the Astros and Mariners are tied for the lead in the division, at 84-69. The loser of Friday's game will find itself in a dogfight with the Red Sox and Guardians for the last two wild card spots in the AL.
Friday's pitching matchup features two All-Stars: Houston's Hunter Brown (12-7, 2.27 ERA) versus Seattle's Bryan Woo (14-7, 3.02). Brown has a 1.63 ERA over his last nine starts. Meanwhile Woo is 6-1 with a 2.77 ERA over his last eight starts.
Top sportsbooks have set both Brown's and Woo's total pitcher strikeout prop at 6.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Brown Under 6.5 as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Woo Under 6.5 as a 3-star play.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday's schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout props that the model has rated at 5 stars and two at 4.5 stars.
Andrew Alvarez Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts
The 26-year-old Nationals rookie lefty makes his fourth start since making his big league debut on Sept. 1. Alvarez (1-0, 1.15) has been excellent since getting to the show, allowing just two runs in 15⅔ innings and going Over 3.5 strikeouts in two of his three starts. He also averaged almost a strikeout an inning in his minor league career, with 459 strikeouts in 477⅔ innings. On Friday he will meet a Mets team that has a .233 batting average against lefties, which ranks just 20th in the majors.
Mitch Farris Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Rockies (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts
This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. Like Alvarez, Farris (1-1, 4.80) makes his fourth start since making his big league debut earlier this month. The 24-year-old Angels lefty has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in two of his three starts, including a seven-strikeout performance in his last outing, against the Mariners. On Friday he will go up against a Colorado team that averages 9.41 strikeouts per game, the second highest in all of baseball.
Robbie Ray Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts
This is a reachable total for the veteran Giants lefty. The 33-year-old Ray (11-7, 3.50) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 24 of 31 starts this season, including his last four in a row. He also has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts both times he has faced the Dodgers this season and has pitched well at Dodger Stadium over his career with 99 strikeouts in 66 innings. On Thursday Los Angeles managed just five hits and two runs off San Francisco pitching.
