Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Giants starter against Brewers at plus odds
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Friday's 15-game schedule
The top two teams in the National League West begin a key three-game series when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres collide on Friday at Petco Park in San Diego. The Dodgers (73-55) lead the division by one game over the Padres (72-56). One week ago, Los Angeles swept a three-game series against San Diego at Dodger Stadium.
On Friday, lefty Blake Snell (3-1, 1.80 ERA) is set to take the mound for Los Angeles. He has not allowed an earned run over his last 13.2 innings. That includes six shutout innings against the Padres last week. Meanwhile, former Dodger Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.97) will get the ball for San Diego. In his last start, Darvish gave up four runs in four innings in a 5-4 loss to Los Angeles.
Top sportsbooks have set Snell's total pitcher strikeout prop at 5.5 and Darvish's at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Snell Over 5.5 as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Darvish Over 4.5 as a 2.5-star play.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Friday's schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout prop that the model has rated at 5 stars that would pay plus money, and two others rated at 4 stars.
Adrian Houser Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Cardinals (7:35 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
The 32-year-old righty makes his fourth start for the Rays since being acquired at the trade deadline from the White Sox. Houser (6-4, 2.67 ERA) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in nine of 14 starts this season. He is coming off a solid performance, pitching five scoreless innings while striking out six in a 2-1 win over San Francisco. On Friday, he takes versus a Cardinals lineup that has averaged 10.0 strikeouts over its last three games.
Carson Whisenhunt Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Brewers (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts
This is the model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. San Francisco's top pitching prospect returns to the majors after the team was forced to place Landen Roupp on the IL. Though Whisenhunt (1-1, 5.02) has made just three major league starts, he has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts twice. Over his minor league career, he showed swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 330 batters in 279 innings.
Zack Littell Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.3 strikeouts
The 29-year-old righty makes his fourth start for the Reds since being acquired at the trade deadline from the Rays. Littell (9-8, 3.52) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 15 of 25 starts this season between Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. The SportsLine Projection Model also notes that Littell has gone Over his pitcher strikeout market in four of his last five games when on the road and playing against a middle-third lineup, averaging 5.2 pitcher strikeouts per game.
