Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Cubs starter against Giants

The National League East-leading Philadelphia Phillies look to end their slide at Citi Field when they visit the division-rival New York Mets on Tuesday for the middle contest of their three-game series. Philadelphia (76-55) saw its lead over New York (70-61) shrink to six games with a 13-3 setback in the series opener. Including last year's NL Division Series, the Phillies have lost eight consecutive contests in Queens.

Philadelphia owned a 3-0 lead after three innings on Monday, but New York scored in each of the next five frames en route to its third win in four games. Mark Vientos began the Mets' comeback in the fourth and put the team ahead in the fifth with RBI doubles, while Luis Torrens added one of his own in the sixth before highlighting a four-run seventh with a three-run homer and capping a three-run eighth with a run-scoring single.

The Phillies hope to halt their losing streak at Citi Field behind Jesus Luzardo (12-6, 4.10 ERA). The 27-year-old left-hander has won five of his last six decisions and is coming off a victory over the Seattle Mariners in which he recorded a season-high 12 strikeouts over six innings. Luzardo fanned seven batters across 6 2/3 frames on June 22 in improving to 5-2 lifetime against the Mets.

New York counters with Sean Manaea (1-2, 5.15), who is winless in his last five outings. The 33-year-old southpaw also set a season high in his last turn, registering eight strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Washington Nationals. Manaea fanned 15 batters across 16 2/3 frames in two regular-season starts against the Phillies last season and struck out six over seven innings in a playoff victory.

The top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for both Luzardo (Over -151, Under +115) and Manaea (Over -146, Under +113) at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Luzardo's Over 5.5 strikeouts prop as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Manaea's Over 5.5 as a 3-star play.

However, the model has found better value on Tuesday's 15-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars and two at 4.5 stars, including one that returns plus money. Here they are:

Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts (-149) vs. Giants (9:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.0 strikeouts

If Boyd's recent pattern continues, he will go Over his projected strikeout total on Tuesday. The 34-year-old lefty has followed a start in which he has recorded at least five strikeouts with one with fewer than four strikeouts over his last six outings, and he's coming off a three-strikeout performance versus the Milwaukee Brewers. Boyd has gone Over his projected total in four of his last five road turns against teams with a losing record. His only career start versus San Francisco came earlier this season, when he fanned seven batters over six innings. 

Hurston Waldrep Over 4.5 strikeouts (+104) vs. Marlins (6:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts

Waldrep is making his sixth career start and fourth this season. His first turn this year came on Aug. 9, when he registered six strikeouts over as many innings in a victory against the Marlins. The 23-year-old right-hander set a career high by fanning seven batters across six frames in his next outing versus the Cleveland Guardians and matched it last time out in seven innings against the Chicago White Sox.

Nick Martinez Over 3.5 strikeouts (-130) vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts

Martinez is coming off his best strikeout performance in four starts this month, as he fanned seven batters over six innings against the Los Angeles Angels last Wednesday. The 35-year-old righty has gone Over his projected total in four of his last five turns versus teams with a winning record, averaging 4.8 strikeouts per game. Martinez had one of his best outings of 2025 in his first meeting with the Dodgers this campaign, recording seven strikeouts across six frames—his highest total since notching a season-high eight on Apr. 9 at San Francisco.