There are two trends that scream "likely winning wager" Tuesday from the Tigers at Rays game with a 6:40 ET first pitch. Those would be the huge struggles of Detroit right-hander Jack Flaherty and the home success of Tampa Bay despite drawing flies at Tropicana Field most games.
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Tigers vs. Rays single-game parlay
- Tampa Bay money line
- Under 1.5 second-inning runs
FanDuel SGP: +110
The last-place Tigers are defending AL Central champions and were solid favorites to repeat this spring, but their season started going down the toilet when ace lefty Tarik Skubal went down for elbow surgery in early May. The team needed guys like big-ticket free-agent addition Framber Valdez and the veteran Flaherty, who is making $25 million this season, to step up until the two-time Cy Young winner Skubal returned, but that definitely has not been the case.
The 30-year-old Flaherty should be in his prime and was pretty good as recently as 2024 but started regressing last year and is a brutal 0-7 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 12 starts. The losses are tied for the most in the majors, and if you had wagered $100 on the Tigers to win each of Flaherty's outings, you would be down $863 as they are 2-10 in his 12.
Their last victory when he took the mound was April 15 vs. Kansas City, which happened to be Flaherty's only quality start of 2026. Since Skubal landed on the injured list after his May 4 start, Flaherty is 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA. He is the biggest money-losing pitcher in the American League, with only Cincinnati's Chris Paddack (minus-$900) worse in the majors.
Flaherty has been a bit unlucky this year with a .336 batting average on balls In play (BABIP) when his career number is .290. The third (8.18 ERA) and fifth innings (15.19 ERA) have really been his bugaboo. He hasn't been that bad in the first (5.25 ERA) or second (2.25 ERA). But for much of the past two seasons, he has hit trouble when going multiple times through opposing orders.
"I don't know if it's about what's going right (in the first two innings)," Flaherty said after a recent outing. "It's about figuring out what's going on in those 15-20 pitches."
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Perhaps Flaherty might be turning a minor corner as he has struck out 20 with just one walk – and it was intentional -- over his past three, but he still has allowed at least three earned in each, and his 30 walks on the year are among the most for MLB starters.
He has not faced the Rays this year and is 0-2 with an 8.66 ERA in four career starts against them. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at 5.3 innings, 6.0 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs. He is set at Over/Under 15.5 outs at DraftKings and +237 for a win.
Even with Monday's 10-9 loss in the series opener, Tampa Bay is an MLB-best 21-7 at home with six straight home series wins – that would end with a loss tonight. Every other MLB club but the Yankees (nine losses) has double-digit home defeats. The Rays are winning largely with defense and pitching, although Tuesday starter Steven Matz (4-2, 4.67 ERA) is hardly the most trustworthy guy in the rotation.
The lefty was shelled last time out in Baltimore to see his season ERA rise nearly a full run but is holding opponents to a .203 batting average at the Trop in 2026. The 35-year-old was almost solely a reliever last year with the Cardinals and Red Sox and didn't allow a run in 4.0 innings spanning three appearances vs. Detroit.
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I'm not the biggest Matz fan in the world, but the Tigers are 6-14 vs. southpaws with a team batting average of .209, and the Rays just don't lose back-to-back home games. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
