It's time to stop talking about whether Pittsburgh right-hander Paul Skenes will repeat as NL Cy Young Award winner, because that's almost surely not happening now, as he's priced at +2000 at DraftKings. At this point, it's more a question of when Skenes will simply win again ahead of his start tonight in Philadelphia against another Cy Young-caliber guy in Zack Wheeler (+3000). It's a 6:40 ET first pitch.
Pirates vs. Phillies MLB same-game parlay
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- Alt Under 10.5
DraftKings SGP price: +208
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Do you remember what you were doing the night of Tuesday, May 12? Skenes had a second straight dominant victory, throwing eight shutout innings against Colorado with 10 strikeouts. Not only has he not won in eight starts since, the Pirates haven't won any of those starts, either. The last reigning Cy Young winner to have a winless skid that that long is Jim Perry. His Twins lost 10 straight games with him on the mound in 1971.
It's not that unusual for a pitcher to have an individual eight-game winless streak, at least for lesser guys. Skenes, as a matter of fact, had one in 2025 (June 3-July 11). But what is pretty unusual is for a team to go that long without a win in any of those starts. The last time the Pirates had an eight-game winless streak for a single starting pitcher was behind Johan Oviedo from June to July 2023. He finished 9-14 with a 4.31 ERA that season.
While Skenes is 6-7 and has been worth minus-$718 if you had wagered $100 on each of Pittsburgh's starts for him to win, it's not like his overall numbers are terrible -- 3.10 ERA, 114 strikeouts and a .205 opponents' batting average. I'm starting to think he's just jinxed. Skenes entered last Friday's start vs. Cincinnati at 5-0 career with a 0.53 ERA across six total appearances against them but allowed four runs in five innings of a no-decision in the eventual 6-4 loss.
Skenes did reach 500 strikeouts in just his 72nd career game, becoming the fastest Pirates pitcher to get there. But his chances of starting for the National League in a third straight All-Star Game are pretty much zero, as he has gone 0-5 with a 4.40 ERA in this winless run. He might not even be a selection. Only three pitchers have made the All-Star Game in each of their first three seasons, as Skenes is attempting: Yu Darvish, Dwight Gooden and Tom Seaver.
"I think it's been a little bit odd," Skenes said of his overall season. "But in terms of the controllables, I've been happy with how I've been throwing and just gonna continue to get better. "Got to remember what's real. Same thing I've been saying for eight starts now."
But that today is July 1 might be a great thing, as Skenes hasn't won a game in June since his rookie season in 2024. While the average velocity on Skenes' four-seam fastball has dipped from 98.1 mph to 97 mph since last season, his 30.6% strikeout rate is better than a year ago (29.5%) and ranks in the 94th percentile.
"The most important thing is, we aren't getting anything from him that there is any physical issue," Pirates GM Ben Cherington said recently to the local media. "I think zooming out, my personal opinion is, this is fairly standard for starting pitchers over time, including elite ones. There are smaller stretches of time where there is some small regression that can be for any number of reasons and then three months later they feel different. It's not uncommon."
This winless run started on May 17 at home vs. the Phillies when Skenes gave up five runs and six hits over five in a 6-0 loss. The SportsLine Projection Model has him at 6.0 innings, 6.8 strikeouts, 4.3 hits allowed and 1.7 earned runs tonight. At DraftKings, Skenes is +165 to win and set at Over/Under 7.5 strikeouts.
As for Wheeler (8-1, 2.03), he's only getting better as the season goes on, but he isn't even the top Cy Young candidate on his team. He is behind Cristopher Sanchez (+350) â who dominated in Tuesday's 8-0 win to open this series. Wheeler finished June at 4-0 in five starts with a 1.71 ERA in 31.2 innings. He was opposite Skenes in that May 17 game at PNC Park and threw seven shutout innings.
Wheeler has completed at least five innings in 53 straight outings, snapping a tie with Roy Halladay for the fifth-longest streak in franchise history. The record is 87 by Curt Schilling from 1997-2000. The model has Wheeler at 6.1 innings, 6.7 strikeouts, 5.8 hits allowed and 2.5 earned runs. Wheeler, who has been worth plus-$525 this year, is +145 to win and also set at O/U 7.5 Ks.
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The model has the Pirates slightly winning, so I'll go ahead and flip Phillies money line to +1 for some protection. I'm not worried much about the overall total, and at least we know by the end of the first if this is still active with the NRFI. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
