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The first round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs wraps up Sunday with what should be a frenzied Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 7 matchup, while Round 2 continues with Wild vs. Avalanche. Four of the six games between the Habs and Bolts have gone to overtime, with the Lightning winning 1-0 in OT on Friday to force this Game 7. The Wild won a similarly tight series with the Stars and now take on the Western Conference's top seed. The Avalanche cruised past the Kings in the first round, outscoring them 13-5 in the series sweep. 

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, has issued its NHL picks and best bets for Sunday's games. The model entered the second full week of the 2026 NHL playoffs with a +668 return on top-rated money-line NHL picks. Anyone following its NHL betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Sunday's Game 7 will eat up the attention, but both games offer plenty of options for bettors, including spread betting, Over/Under bets, money line betting and player prop betting. Bettors can also combine multiple picks and make a parlay bet for Saturday's game.

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NHL Playoffs picks for Sunday, May 3

  • Canadiens vs. Lightning Over 5.5 Goals
  • Canadiens Money Line
  • Wild +1.5

Canadiens vs. Lightning Over 5.5 Goals

This series has been as tight as it could possibly be, with both Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Lightning and Montreal's Jakub Dobes making huge save after huge save. The first game finished with seven total goals before four straight 3-2 contests. Game 6 was filled with action, but the goalies kept pucks out of the net. The SportsLine model expects more scoring in this one, with Over 5.5 goals hitting in 55.1% of simulations.   

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Canadiens Money Line

These teams are eerily evenly matched, and it could go either way. The Lightning are at home, but this series is likely to come down to one huge goal. The physical play and strong goaltending have frustrated stars like Tampa Bay's Nikita Kucherov, who hasn't scored since the series opener, and Montreal's Cole Caufield, who also has just one goal. The model has Montreal winning in 49% of its simulations, earning the pick a 'B' grade with a plus-money payout. 

Wild +1.5

Minnesota only allowed more than two goals in one game in its series victory against the Stars. Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt has 103 saves over the past three games, while Matt Boldy has six goals and Kirill Kaprizov has seven assists in the playoffs. The Avalanche had the best record in the NHL, but the SportsLine model sees Minnesota putting up a fight, as it is projecting a final score of 3.3-3.0, with the Wild covering the +1.5 puck line in 68% of its simulations.     

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