NFL Week 5 anytime touchdown scorer top 100 cheat sheet: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ashton Jeanty, Cook Lines Moving

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. We are coming off a couple of killer weeks are now up to 69-48, +15.8 units in the NFL. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown +110 DraftKings

10/1 AM UPDATE: We loved this pick (obviously) when it opened at -145 so you can only imagine how excited we were to see it at +110 on DraftKings and BetMGM.

Amon-Ra is our #1 projected ATD scorer this week with over a 90% chance so to get under 60% implied odds is fantastic. One major reason why the Bengals' defense is even worse than last year (allowed 25.5 in '24 and now 29.8 in '25) is the Joe Burrow injury has destroyed their ability to sustain drives resulting in an average of 49 offensive plays per game (60 last season). Those 10+ plays don't evaporate into thin air. They go to the opponent and Detroit may have 75+ plays which is why we are projecting 2.5 TDs for Goff and St. Brown's 42% of team REC TDs equals an OVER 1 Rec TD per sim projection. Bet it at DraftKings:

So our sportsbook would charge you -930 and that's with no vig. We'd barely offer -1000 if we were trying to turn a profit.

Ashton Jeanty -140 DraftKings

Even before his breakout game vs Chicago I thought he was a 'ticking time bomb' to explode because he was getting 3.5 to 4.5 yards in situations where most RBs would get stuffed for 2 to 2.5 (I'm looking at you Chase Brown). To see him score twice through the air with Geno Smith on the struggle bus has elevated his % of team TDs after 4 games to 100% of team rushing TDs and 33% of team receiving TDs.

The odds imply the Raiders will score 21 points so that's basically 2 TDs. Obviously his 100% and 33% shares aren't sustainable. But I'd be shocked if his running share didn't stay above 80% given who else is in that room. And he was a WR originally at Boise State and TE Brock Bowers seems slowed down by an early season injury he's playing through. I'd be shocked if Jeanty didn't maintain at least an 18% share of receiving TDs (McCaffrey is at 21% for comparisons sake).

10/1 AM UPDATE: BetMGM is offering a slightly better line at -135.

James Cook -195 DraftKings

10/1 AM UPDATE: Unlike the Amon-Ra line this one has lost value with the best price up to -220. You'll want to lock this one before it's -240 or more across the board.

I've hit on him in Week 1 when he was priced at +105. Despite his league leading numbers in 2024 the markets figured he'd regress in 2025. I scored again in Week 3 with him at -172 as the markets were beginning to realize he's not going to regress. I went 3 for 3 last week with him priced at -190. I'm not going to commit the "gambler's fallacy" and assume he's due to end his ridiculous streak. In my opinion he has looked even more dynamic than last year running the ball and he's not just benefiting from teams overloading on Josh Allen on goal to go situations. He's much more of the "straw that stirs the drink" that people credit him for.

I don't envision these lines moving in our favor so I'd probably lock in this +338 rather than risk it going down to +300.

Complete ATD Cheatsheet

These are our Top 100+ ATD scorers with the lines updated 10/1 around 7 am EST. When a sportsbook is listed in (parentheses) it means there is positive betting value vs our ATD%.