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The first Sunday of the NFL season is one of the most exciting weeks on the calendar for NFL fans and sports bettors, marking the first Sunday since January 5 with a full slate of NFL action. Schedule makers know how to start the season off with intriguing storylines around the league and throughout the day, including the Steelers vs. Jets at 1 p.m. ET with Aaron Rodgers making his return to MetLife Stadium, Lions vs. Packers in an NFC North battle at 4:25 p.m. ET, culminating with Ravens vs. Bills with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen going head-to-head on Sunday Night football.

There are plenty of games to include in Week 1 when online sports betting the opening week of the 2025 NFL season. With 13 games on the first NFL Sunday of the season, there are plenty of options on betting sites such as DraftKings Sportsbook. The latest DraftKings promo code comes with an additional bonus for NFL fans, offering new users over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket as well as $200 in bonus bets after making your first $5 bet. Check it out here:

Explaining the model hitting over 60% on main market picks

The Inside the Lines team conceived of, developed and currently powers the SportsLine model. This team provides 100,000s of data driven picks to subscribers a year, but if you want to tail what, when and where they actually personally bet visit, bookmark and frequently check their free picks blog which is being constantly updated with their latest and hopefully greatest.

Our NFL model simulates each game thousands of times and has performed extremely well on top rated spread, total and money line picks, going 72-47, 60.5% +18.5 units over the last three seasons. Two things may jump out at you: 1, >60% is a lot better than what I am hitting and 2, that's not a lot of picks. Our model is different than most. We don't try to accurately forecast who is going to cover. Over two decades, we have reverse engineered oddsmakers' models which has resulted in 85-90% of our projections being virtually identical to the oddsmaker's lines (main markets and props). When sportsbooks' lines differ from ours, we know they are likely manipulating a line to either sucker the public or minimize risk. We identify our best bets by starting with our biggest projected line values, but we build confidence by pinpointing the stats and narratives that resulted in an incorrectly 'manipulated' line.

FanDuel Sportsbook has upped its latest promotion ahead of the 2025 NFL season with the latest FanDuel promo code offering new users $300 in bonus bets if your first bet of $5 or more wins. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 (-115 Fanatics) vs Atlanta Falcons

Most books have this at -1.5 and I think it's worth to pay -115 (vs -110) for the 0.5 point. I lost a Rams cover when I didn't think 0.5 point was worth the 5 ML units back in the Marc Bulger years and will never forget it. The odds implied projected score is TB 25, ATL 24 and our model's projection is TB 30, ATL 23 so the bulk of the value on TB comes on their ability to score >25 points. The Bucs averaged more on the road (31) than at home (28) last season and in 2023 (23 on road, 19 at home). 

Their combined road ATS record the past 2 seasons is 13-5. This season's Bucs should be even more dynamic with Bucky Irving fully entrenched as the starting RB, Chris Godwin back healthy, Emeka Egbuka as WR3 and the ageless Mike Evans poised for another, record-breaking, 1,000-yard season. 

While other sportsbooks have moved Tampa Bay to favorites of 1.5 points or greater, Fanatics Sportsbook has the Buccaneers as 1-point favorites as the best place to make this Week 1 NFL bet. The latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code gives new users $1,000 in No Sweat Bets in FanCash, as a strong way to build a bankroll while getting the best value on Tampa Bay.

Get the Commanders -6.5 Hook w/ McClaurin's Contract Issues

The consensus spread has moved from Washington -7.5 to -6.5 because Terry McClaurin is holding out / holding in and the Giants always have New York fueled optimism this time of the year skewing betting action towards NY. I believe they can figure this situation out and when they do the line could go back to -7 or even -7.5 and I don't want to lose that crucial hook.

The model is confident in Washington and while the odds project a score of WAS 26, NY 19.5 our model has it at WAS 32.5, NY 19. So the value is 95% coming from Washington's ability to score over 26 points. And even if McClaurin isn't there he's not worth more than 5 points.

New York drafted Abdul Carter and as great as he is pass rush wasn't New York's problem last season. The Giants had the 8th most sacks in the league last season but still allowed the 12th most points (24.4). Washington's offense averaged 30 per game last season. We are banking on McClaurin being healthy and happy as a member of the team by Week 1 and we also believe that Deebo Samuel can contribute as a creative 'duel threat' receiver and runner in Washington's system.

You can get -6.5 at the standard juice pretty much across the board so bet where you can get the best Week 1 offer.

Seahawks +120 live home underdogs at DraftKings vs 49ers

The 49ers are being given a pass for their bad 2024 season and are as much as -130 favorites at Seattle. Our model isn't being so kind because while not having Christian McCaffrey hurt the 49ers, they did still get plenty of rushing productivity going from 4.8 ypc w/ McCaffrey in '23 and 4.7 ypc largely without him in '24. And while McCaffrey does add a lot to the passing game so did Deebo Samuel who is now in Washington. 

The bigger issue for the 49ers is their defense was lousy on the road last season allowing 30.4 points per game. The Seahawks' defense is going to be much improved with Mike Macdonald Year 2. He proved at Michigan and then with the Ravens that his schemes are worth 3+ points in points allowed and does not need huge splashy free agents or top 5 draft picks to get tremendous productivity from defensive players to see major statistical improvements. The +120 implies a 45.4% chance of winning while the model has Seattle winning nearly 58% of the time. 

Geno Smith completed a high% but was ineffective in the Red Zone. Sam Darnold clearly benefited from playing in the MIN system but the trio of Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Cooper Kupp should complete a higher % of passes than the trio of Geno, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. They won't have as many explosives, but you should see at least 90% the productivity you saw from Seattle offensively last season.

You can use the latest DraftKings promo code for over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket as well as $200 in bonus bets after making your first $5 bet. With 49ers vs. Seahawks set for 4:05 p.m. ET, NFL Sunday Ticket is the only way to guarantee yourself the ability to watch this game in full. Check out the offer here.

More Picks Including: Cowboys and Eagles 

Again, the picks you see above are just a fraction of what's available for free at our blog. We'll have a ton of player props once those Week 1 line are posted including our best bet for the season opener between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Also, check out the latest BetMGM promo code, which gives new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses, which can be used towards Week 1 NFL betting.