NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Cowboys vs. Raiders on Monday Night Football from proven model

If the Dallas Cowboys want to keep alive their chances to avoid missing the playoffs for a second straight year, they're first going to have to win a vast majority of their eight remaining games. That must begin in Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season, when they visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.

The Cowboys (3-5-1), who were on a bye last week, have lost three of their last four games and have yet to post back-to-back victories this season. The fell to 1-4 on the road with a 44-24 setback against the Denver Broncos in Week 8 and dropped a 17-17 decision to the Arizona Cardinals at home the following week.

Dallas currently is 11th in the NFC but can jump ahead of Minnesota this week with a triumph over Las Vegas and a Vikings loss to the Chicago Bears. But the Cowboys still will have two teams standing between them and the third wild card spot in the conference, and things will get much more difficult for them as they face the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions in their next three games.

However, Dallas first must focus on its meeting with a Raiders team that has struggled mightily in Pete Carroll's return to the head-coaching ranks. Las Vegas has lost three consecutive contests and seven of eight since defeating the New England Patriots on the road in its season opener.

Dallas' offense is among the most productive in the NFL as the team ranks third in passing (257.8 yards) and fourth in both scoring (29.2 points) and total offense (378.4 yards). But for the Cowboys to have a legitimate shot at the postseason, they'll have to improve dramatically on the other side of the ball as they are 28th against the run (143.0 yards allowed), 29th against the pass (254.4) and 31st in total defense (397.4) and points allowed (30.8).

SportsLine's Inside the Lines team currently doesn't give Dallas much of a chance to qualify for the playoffs, and the team's outlook improves minimally with a victory against Las Vegas. However, the Cowboys' prospects become almost obsolete with a third consecutive defeat.

According to the ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, the Raiders have no chance to avoid missing the postseason for the fourth straight year and eighth time in nine campaigns. A win on Monday night would do virtually nothing to improve their outlook.

Winning their second NFC East title in three years doesn't appear to be in the cards for the Cowboys, as the Eagles are soaring to their second straight crown with a 7-2 record. Three of Philadelphia's next four games are against bona  fide playoff contenders in the Lions, Bears and Los Angeles Chargers, so the slimmest of chances are there for Dallas, which also faces the Eagles in that span -- should the reigning Super Bowl champion lose those contests.

The model currently gives the Cowboys less than a 2% chance to win the division and says a win on Monday night barely moves the needle regarding their outlook. Meanwhile, a loss would all but put them out of contention.

The model gives the Raiders no consideration when it comes to finishing atop the AFC West, a division in which the other three members all are above the .500 mark. Most of Las Vegas' problems are on the offensive side of the football, as the team is 27th in passing (185.2 yards), 29th in rushing (87.4), 30th in total offense (272.7 yards) and 31st in scoring (15.4 points). In addition, Geno Smith is tied for second in the NFL with 12 interceptions.

Las Vegas is in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories, but it will have to be close to its best on Monday. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is sixth in the league with 2,319 passing yards and seventh with 17 touchdown tosses, running back Javonte Williams ranks third with eight TD runs and sixth with 716 rushing yards, and wideout George Pickens is fourth in both receiving yards (764) and scoring catches (six). Tight end Jake Ferguson also has hauled in six touchdown passes, and CeeDee Lamb has 491 yards in just five full games played.

One of the few offensive bright spots for the Raiders has been the play of running back Ashton Jeanty, who was the sixth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The 21-year-old rookie is 10th in the league in rushing with 547 yards and has made four TD runs, including Las Vegas' lone score in last week's 10-7 loss to the AFC West-rival Broncos.

The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites against the Raiders in the latest consensus odds, and the ITL team's model is projecting a 28-22 victory for Dallas, which would keep the team in the mix for a playoff spot in the NFC every so slightly.