NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Cardinals vs. Cowboys on Monday Night Football from proven model

Not very long ago, Dak Prescott's name was being mentioned in conversations regarding the MVP of the 2025 NFL season. Prescott did not help his cause last week, as he threw for only 188 yards without a touchdown and was intercepted twice in Dallas' 44-24 loss to the Denver Broncos. The performance was his worst since the season opener, in which he also had 188 passing yards and no TDs against the Philadelphia Eagles, and ended his string of four consecutive games with at least a pair of scoring tosses.

Despite the setback at Denver, which dropped them to 1-4 on the road this season, the Cowboys (3-4-1) still have a shot at making the playoffs. But they'll need to come away with a Week 9 home victory against the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football to keep their chances somewhat realistic.

Dallas will be on a bye after the matchup with Arizona before visiting the struggling Las Vegas Raiders when it returns to action in Week 11. Things get very difficult after that as the Cowboys' following three games are against the Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, with the latter contest being on the road.

The Cardinals (2-5) had people believing they could earn just their second playoff appearance in 10 seasons after beginning 2025 with victories over the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers. But the club hasn't won since, with its 27-23 setback against the Green Bay Packers in Week 7 being its fifth loss in a row.

Arizona has been without quarterback Kyler Murray for two games due to a foot injury, but the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft was able to get some extra recovery time thanks to last week's bye and is expected to be under center in Dallas. That will increase the Cardinals' chances of defeating the Cowboys for the eighth time in their last nine meetings.

Should Arizona pull off the mild upset, SportsLine's Inside the Lines team believes its outlook for the postseason still will be gloomy. According to its projection model, the Cardinals' slim chances of making the playoffs only will increase by around 4% with a win on Monday night. 

Dallas' current postseason prospects improve by just over 8% with a triumph. But the model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, says its chances decrease by the same amount with a loss, making the difference between victory and defeat more than 16%.

Winning their third NFC East title in five years will be extremely difficult for the Cowboys, but a loss to the Cardinals would make it nearly impossible. The model currently says Dallas finishes first in the division in about 7% of its simulations but would do so less than 4% of the time with a defeat.

According to the model, Arizona has virtually no shot at capturing the NFC West crown. A win on Monday night would have almost no effect, as the simulations say its division title chances would remain under 1%.

Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and only one interception in three career meetings with the Cardinals, but the Cowboys won just one of those contests. Meanwhile, star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb did not haul in a touchdown pass in his previous three career games against Arizona.

Murray has yet to lose to the Cowboys as he has led the Cardinals to a pair of victories in Dallas. The 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year threw two touchdown passes and also ran for a score in a 38-10 win at AT&T Stadium in 2020 and completed 26 of 38 pass attempts for 263 yards and a pair of TDs en route to a 25-22 triumph the following season. 

The 28-year-old Murray was limited in Thursday's practice and his status for Monday's game on Arizona's injury report was "unspecified," but head coach Jonathan Gannon told reporters the team is preparing for him to be the starting QB. As it stands, Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest consensus odds, but the ITL team's model is leaning toward a cover by Arizona as it projects a 29-28 victory by the Cowboys.