NFL predictions: How Jets vs. Patriots Week 11 Thursday Night Football matchup impacts season
According to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and Projection Model, both New England and New York have a lot riding on Thursday's game
For the first time since Tom Brady took his perfectly manicured hair and tight spirals to Tampa Bay, the New England Patriots are relevant.
After going 4-13 in each of the last two seasons, they are 8-2 this year. They share the best record in the NFL with the Broncos and Colts and own a 1½-game lead in the AFC East over the Bills, who have won the division five years in a row. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate, joining the Rams' Matthew Stafford atop the odds board of top sportsbooks.
And so, New England is playing meaningful games deep into November. That includes the Thursday Night Football game at Gillette Stadium against the New York Jets in Week 11.
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According to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and Projection Model, the Patriots cannot afford a loss on Thursday if they hope to earn the coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff bracket. Though New England, Denver and Indianapolis are tied at 8-2, the model gives a slight edge to the Patriots to earn the top seed (as well as the home-field advantage and bye week that goes with it). The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, projects them to finish with 12.1 wins, slightly more than the Broncos (12.0) and Colts (11.9).
If New England loses to the Jets, Maye & Co. go from the model's favorite to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC to a dogfight with the Bills just to win the AFC East.
| Entering Week 11 | With Week 11 win | With Week 11 loss | |
| Patriots' chance to win division | 78.2% | 80.8% | 59.4% |
One of the reasons the model is high on the Patriots is the schedule. They have only one game remaining against a team with a winning record, Buffalo (6-3), a rival New England already beat in Week 5. According to the model, the Patriots have the second easiest remaining strength of schedule (42.3%) in the league; only the Saints (38.9%) have an easier one down the stretch.
But New England players and coaches say they're not taking any opponents lightly, beginning with the Jets (2-7), who have won two in a row after losing their first seven games.
"I saw energy [from New York]. I saw excitement that jumped off the screen. This will be a challenge," head coach Mike Vrabel said.
"They're a good team. They're going to come in here with the right mindset. They got a lot to prove. They can continue to try to prove it," receiver Stefon Diggs said.
Said Maye, "They're going to be a tough challenge."
New England is a 12.5-point favorite against New York.
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The Jetsâwho famously shipped out their two best defensive players, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, at the trade deadlineâhave a lot on the line also on Thursday, but in a different way. According to the model New York enters Week 11 with a 19.4% chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL Draft and a 52.4% chance for a top-three pick. Only the 1-8 Titans (53.3% and 83.6%, respectively) have a higher chance.
An upset win on Thursday night would obviously affect those odds, but coach Aaron Glenn is not looking at the game that way.
"We just want to win," he said. "And the more you win, the more confident you get as a player, the more confident you get as a team. And that's the only thing that we care about."
