NFL Power Rankings Week 5: Lamar Jackson, Tyreek Hill Injury Impact with Best Futures
The Inside the Lines team uses its proven NFL model to objectively rank each team's outlook for 2025
The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. Our NFL model simulates each game thousands of times and has performed extremely well on top rated spread, total and money line picks, going 81-51, 61.3% (+22.7 units) in NFL betting since 2022. Our 2025 Best Bets Picks from the blog which include our player props are up over 9 units coming off a 4-0 Sunday Night Football game.
Our power rankings are different than others. We don't rank teams based on their record or how much better/worse they have performed vs expectations. We have a model that is akin to oddsmakers in setting lines but we choose to use the lines for good (help you win bets by identifying 'loose lines') rather than personal profit (ie. no vig, no sucker bets).
We simulate each team vs every other team on a neutral field playing with players who would be available on February (Super Bowl) and rank team based on their average sim win%.
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Lamar Jackson Out 2 to 3 Weeks
The reports have Lamar Jackson out 2 to 3 weeks but the Ravens have a bye week in 3 weeks so it's unclear (to me at least) if that means he's actually at risk to miss 4 weeks (3 games). You can see from the original analysis below that we were already fading the defense. Even if Lamar was healthy he can't pay defensive tackle or inside linebacker or edge rusher or guard or fullback or you name the hole in the Ravens right now.
| BALTIMORE | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | AFC CHAMP | SUPER BOWL |
| Healthy Lamar Jackson | 9.0 | 52.9% | 35.6% | 60.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Out 2 Games | 8.5 | 50.0% | 22.4% | 45.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Out 6 Games | 7.7 | 45.3% | 8.3% | 28.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
We know from his 2021 and 2022 seasons that injuries initially described as week to week can unfortunately end up being month to month. If Cooper Rush does not live up to high end backup expectations and keep this team afloat over 2, 3,... 6 games then it's not hard to imagine the team sitting Lamar Jackson until he is truly 100%. Especially with the offensive line struggling in pass protection.
Oddsmakers are shockingly positive and bullish on the Ravens. Their average win line is still 10.5 but as you see from our original analysis below that the Under line has gone from -105 on Caesars to off the board on Caesars and as high as -170 on DraftKings. You can get -150 on BetMGM and FanDuel.
Miami Dolphins Offset Tyreek Hill Injury with Darren Waller
Our model projected Darren Waller would have a major impact on how and the Dolphins would play which is why we took them as a strong bet to cover -2.5 vs the Jets. The relatively minor impact of Tyreek Hill's injury is entirely due to having Waller, a sure handed Tight End who also has blazing speed for a Tight End. Hill is a 1 of 1 field stretcher but the Dolphins, with Tua's relatively weak arm and inability to avoid big hits, have developed an offense with short passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.
| MIAMI | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | AFC CHAMP | SUPER BOWL |
| w/ Tyreek Hil | 6.1 | 35.9% | 1.9% | 4.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| w/o Tyreek Hill | 5.9 | 34.7% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| IMPACT | -0.2 | -1.2% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
Defenses kind of knew that more often than not when Tyreek was running a go route he was usually a decoy as long as Miami wasn't down a bunch. Not having that decoy hurts, but with Waller playing the Jonnu Smith role from last season, they are basically the same team. If Waller had not come out of retirement then the impact would be MASSIVE. Probably at least 0.6 wins their already low playoff% would be next to nothing.
Original Content Published 9/30 below.
Baltimore Ravens Under 10.5 Wins (-105 Caesars)
This is a 9/30 am update with the Ravens falling out of the Top 10 due to Nnamdi Madubuike's season ending injury and numerous other significant injuries likely to result in missed games.
The disastrous 2021 and 2022 seasons were ruined by Lamar Jackson's injury. John Harbaugh publicly stated that he'd be back sooner than later and he never came back those season. Ever since that experience Harbaugh never provides any injury information beyond what is required by the NFL rules. Between Nnamdi Madubuike's season (and possibly career) ending neck injury, Lamar's injury, Pat Ricard's injury, and horrendous play + injuries to Roquan Smith, Marlon Humprey, etc. etc. the Ravens are a disaster. They went from -9.5 to -3.5 favorites vs Houston in Week 5. Given soft muscle injuries simply do not heal in Baltimore County do not expect them to be healthy even after their Week 7 bye week. Take the under (projection 8.7 wins).
Bet-able Power Rankings After Week 4
This week our Power Rankings not only show each team ranked 1 to 32 with their average SIM WIN% vs the rest of the league on a neutral field but we also are showing
- Each team's season ending Projection Win Total
- The latest FanDuel win total line
- Their average Margin of Victory in the Neutral Field Simulation
- Their average Margin of Victory in their remaining regular season games
Teams with >Plus 1.5 Pt Difference or -1.5 Pt Difference in Average Margin of Victory are displayed. Teams with +Values are ones who should yield good Over Values for Futures and those with Negative Values are your most likely Under values.
| PWR | TEAM (SIM WIN%) | PROJ WINS | FANDUEL LINE | MOV (N) | MOV (ROS) | +/- |
| 1 | Detroit Lions (72.4%) | 11.6 | 11.5 (+105o,-125u) | 10.1 | 7.3 | -2.8 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills (72%) | 13.9 | 13.5 (-165o,+140u) | 10.3 | 12.7 | +2.4 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles (69.4%) | 12.4 | 12.5 (-115o,-105u) | 8.3 | 6.6 | -1.7 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers (67.5%) | 10.1 | 10.5 (-140o,+120u) | 7.2 | 5.4 | -1.8 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs (63.6%) | 10.3 | 10.5 (-125o,+105u) | 3.8 | 5.0 | |
| 6 | Denver Broncos (60.6%) | 9.7 | 8.5 (-145o,+125u) | 4.2 | 3.9 | |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (60.1%) | 11.1 | 10.5 (+100o,-120u) | 4.3 | 5.0 | |
| 8 | Washington Commanders (60.1%) | 8.9 | 9.5 (+125o,-145u) | 4.3 | 1.7 | -2.6 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers (58.5%) | 10.2 | 8.5 (-140o,+120u) | 3.3 | 2.2 | |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers (58.3%) | 10.3 | 10.5 (-135o,+115u) | 3.4 | 2.9 | |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens (57.9%) | 8.7 | 10.5 (+110o,-130u) | 4.4 | 4.5 | |
| 12 | Seattle Seahawks (56.3%) | 10.6 | 9.5 (-135o,+110u) | 2.5 | 3.9 | |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams (53.6%) | 9.8 | 11.5 (+110o,-130u) | 1.4 | 0.8 | |
| 14 | Houston Texans (53.2%) | 7.7 | 7.5 (+120o,-140u) | 1.2 | 0.7 | |
| 15 | Minnesota Vikings (52.5%) | 8.6 | 7.5 (-125o,+105u) | 0.9 | 0.3 | |
| 16 | San Francisco 49ers (49%) | 9.5 | 10.5 (-135o,+115u) | -0.5 | 0.0 | |
| 17 | Indianapolis Colts (48.6%) | 10.2 | 9.5 (-145o,+125u) | -0.8 | 2.4 | +3.2 |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals (47.5%) | 8.8 | 8.5 (+125o,-145u) | -1.3 | 0.7 | +2 |
| 19 | Jacksonville Jaguars (45.4%) | 9.1 | 9.5 (-130o,+110u) | -2.1 | -1.1 | |
| 20 | Dallas Cowboys (45.1%) | 6.7 | 6.5 (-125o,+105u) | -2.5 | -2.8 | |
| 21 | Cincinnati Bengals (44.8%) | 7.3 | 6.5 (+100o,-120u) | -2.6 | -4.5 | -1.9 |
| 22 | Chicago Bears (42.9%) | 7.8 | 7.5 (-120o,+100u) | -3.1 | -2.4 | |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons (41.8%) | 7.3 | 8.5 (-105o,-115u) | -3.8 | -4.6 | |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins (40%) | 6.4 | 5.5 (-135o,+115u) | -4.6 | -4.7 | |
| 25 | New England Patriots (39.6%) | 7.9 | 8.5 (+110o,-130u) | -4.7 | -2.5 | +2.1 |
| 26 | New York Jets (37.7%) | 5.6 | 5.5 (+120o,-140u) | -5.4 | -3.2 | +2.3 |
| 27 | New York Giants (37.1%) | 5.0 | 4.5 (-140o,+120u) | -5.7 | -8.5 | -2.8 |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints (35%) | 5.5 | 4.5 (+125o,-150u) | -7.9 | -5.9 | +2 |
| 29 | Las Vegas Raiders (34.5%) | 5.6 | 5.5 (-140o,+120u) | -7.0 | -6.4 | |
| 30 | Carolina Panthers (32.8%) | 5.2 | 5.5 (+100o,-120u) | -7.8 | -8.4 | |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns (32.3%) | 5.9 | 6.5 (+120o,-140u) | -7.7 | -5.4 | +2.2 |
| 32 | Tennessee Titans (30%) | 3.4 | 3.5 (+120o,-140u) | -9.0 | -10.4 |
Best Over Values
Buffalo Bills: They struggled to pull away from the Saints and the Patriots dominated the Panthers and as a result their stranglehold in the division and other futures lines' implied probabilities actually dipped after Week 4. But with the 4th easiest remaining strength of schedule based on their opponent's average power ranking above their projected remaining margin of victory is much better than their already sky high +10 neutral sim power ranking.
Best Bet: Win Super Bowl (+450 FanDuel)... Sim 28%
Indianapolis Colts: If Adonai Mitchell doesn't fumble crossing the goal line, they probably would be undefeated. Last season they collapsed after the same thing happened to Jonathan Taylor. Hopefully for their sake that doesn't happen again.
Best Bet: Colts to win AFC South (+100 DraftKings)... Sim 58%
Arizona Cardinals: They are a slight -1.3 average underdog in the power ranking simulation but a slight +0.7 favorite on average the rest of the actual regular season. They have lost two games by a combined 4 points. They have played well enough to be 3-1 and if Marvin Harrison Jr. didn't play like the worst WR in the league for 15 to 25 minutes a game they might be 4-0.
Best Bet: Cardinals win Over 7.5 Games (-165 Caesars)... Sim 79%
New York Jets: We were all over Miami and Tua having their first good game vs the Jets. We had Darren Waller as a top Waiver Wire Target before the game. The scoreboard vs Miami looked bad, but their offense, minus the turnovers, looked good. The vaunted defense isn't generating any pass rush with just 2 sacks in their last 3 games. But they have the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC the rest of the season. Our 5.6 projection is basically the same as their win total line and we wouldn't recommend the over on DraftKings who is offering +100, but at FanDuel and Hard Rock where it's +120, well that's a different story. Their season gets immediately easier next week vs Carolina.
Best Bet: Jets Win Over 5.5 Games (+120 FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints: They have been in position to take the lead late in the 2nd half of three of their four games. Brandin Cooks was 1 centimeter away from taking the lead vs the Bills at Buffalo. That, combined with their "not so (Philly) special" was the reason they didn't pull off the biggest upset of the year. They might end up as the most competitive 2 win team in history because they have coaches and players fighting for their professional lives so do not expect them to pack it in this season.
Best Bet: Saints Win Over 3.5 Games (-150 FanDuel)... Sim 85%
Cleveland Browns: The defense is awesome. They allowed just 3.8 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per pass attempt to the Lions in Detroit. We predicted early this year that if Joe Flacco held onto the starting job he'd lead the league in multiple interception games and he already has two this season with just a 2 TD to 6 INT ratio. Quinshon Judkins is the real deal at RB and draft day afterthoughts, Isaiah Bond and Harold Fannin Jr., probably would be Day 2 picks in a draft redo. It's time to see if Dillon Gabriel could be another young Andy Dalton type with Cincinnati. Clear ceiling, but good enough to compete for divisions.
Best Bet: Browns Win Over 5.5 Games (-145 FanDuel)... Sim 53%...This is not a good value but if Baltimore's horrendous injuries last (especially Lamar Jackson's) and Joe Burrow misses the rest of the season and Aaron Rodgers takes a big hit at 40+ years old they may end up winning 7 to 8 games.
Best Under Values
The headline is definitely a little click baity and misleading. The Lions are not only our #1 team they are still a good bet in many markets. They just have a far tougher remaining schedule than the average.
Detroit Lions: The good news for Detroit is they jumped 4 spots in our power ranking all the way to #1 in the league with a +10 average point differential in the power ranking simulations. But their rest of season average pt diff is barely a touchdown. Green Bay, despite their tie vs Dallas, still is an elite team that has the tie breaker currently. Minnesota is hit or miss but certainly is a playoff contender and Chicago is rising up the rankings with clutch play from Caleb Williams.
Even though our projected rest of season average point differential is much worse than their power ranking one we still see them as a good bet to win the division over Green Bay now that Green Bay's defense looks far more vulnerable.
Best Bet: Detroit Wins NFC North (+140 Multiple Books)... Sim 58%
Philadelphia Eagles: The Giants' defense looks like a top 8 unit and the rookie combo of Dart + Skattebo can run their way to points, even without Malik Nabers. Now that those two games are no longer layups the Eagles only have 1 'cakewalk' the rest of the season (Week 15 at home vs the Raiders). They are still a strong value to win the division, win the NFC, and repeat to win the Super Bowl but it's less than 50% that they win 13+ games and FanDuel is offering a good price of -110 under 12.5 wins (other books have it at -140).
Best Bet: Eagles Win Under 12.5 Games (-110 FanDuel)... Sim 52%
Green Bay Packers: The pass rush, which had four sacks in their first two games, only had three total their last two winless weeks. They haven't gotten to the QB and yet they also allowed both opponents to average around five yards per carry. The same strength of schedule issues that impact Detroit are impacting the Packers, but Green Bay has the advantage of playing the Bengals next week without Burrow and the Panthers, who still have a horrendous defense on the road. But with just two cakewalks, there is value on the Under in win total.
Best Bet: Packers Under 10.5 Wins (+120 FanDuel)... Sim 59%
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels should be back next week but their problem was not Marcus Mariota or the offense. It was the defense that got rolled by the Falcons who scored 0 vs the Panther the week before. Daniels also does not look as sharp to start this season and it's not crazy to think he may have a sophomore slump like C.J. Stroud did now that no one underestimates him. Everyone knows he can make every throw and defenses plan for it.
Best Bet: Washington Misses the Playoffs (-115 DraftKings)... Sim 60%
Cincinnati Bengals: TBD After Monday Night Football.
New York Giants: Jaxson Dart was great running the ball but he also had to sit a few snaps after taking a hit. Once Malik Nabers got hurt the passing success for Dart also stopped. The Giants are an ascending, exciting team but it steamed their win total line and other futures lines up too much and doesn't reflect their actual rest of season reality.
Best Bet: Giants Win Under 5.5 Games (-140 DraftKings)... Sim 61%
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