NFL Power Rankings 2025 vs. Strength of Schedule: Bills, Ravens, Packers Best Teams with Easiest Schedules
The Inside the Lines team uses its proven NFL model to objectively rank each team's outlook for 2025
The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. Our NFL model simulates each game thousands of times and has performed extremely well on top rated spread, total and money line picks, going 72-47, 60.5% (+18.5 units) in NFL betting from '22-24.
In Week 2 we went 4-0 ATS favoring the top teams Green Bay, Buffalo, Baltimore and Detroit all by well over 10 points.
Our model is different than most. We don't try to accurately forecast who is going to cover. Over two decades, we have reverse engineered oddsmakers' models which has resulted in 85-90% of our projections being virtually identical to the oddsmaker's lines. When top sportsbooks' lines differ from ours, we know they are likely manipulating a line to generate monetary value or minimize risk. And more often than not, betting a line that is statistically sound is the better side.
Power Rankings
Scroll down below to see all teams ranked #1 to #32 based on the SIM% along with our latest projected win totals, % chance of winning their division, making the playoffs, and winning the Super Bowl. After tonight's two Monday Night Football games we will update and make our best Futures picks.
But I thought it would be more interesting to sort teams by their Power Ranking vs their Strength of Schedule the Rest of the Season (SOS ROS) and see what type of potential good betting insights we can derive by looking at this metric. If/when the betting lines are based on a team's power ranking but their SOS ROS Rank is much lower/easier (Buffalo) or much higher/harder (Chicago) than their Power Rank you can identify great futures values, which we will specifically pinpoint in our post-MNF double header update.
| TEAM | SIM% | SOS ROS | PWR | SOS | DIFF | OUTLOOK BASED ON STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE |
| Buffalo Bills | 71.8% | 45.2% | 1 | 30 | +29 | Take every over, no one else in the division is remotely close |
| San Francisco 49ers | 54.0% | 44.0% | 12 | 32 | +20 | Can withstand early season injuries to Kittle, Purdy |
| Baltimore Ravens | 71.4% | 49.4% | 2 | 19 | +17 | They can win by 24 pts, put up 41 vs CLE with Henry at 23 yards, 1 fumble |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 58.1% | 48.1% | 8 | 22 | +14 | We will see if road excellence continues tonight in Houston |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 55.8% | 48.3% | 10 | 21 | +11 | They are 3rd in the AFC West in power ranking, but the favorite because of SOS |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 59.3% | 50.9% | 6 | 15 | +9 | Playoff% drops below 50% if they lose the Giants in Week 3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 51.6% | 47.4% | 16 | 25 | +9 | Still a solid bet to win 9 games and win division at +900 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 45.6% | 46.7% | 20 | 28 | +8 | Pass rush won huge game vs MIN, schedule gets easier, playoff% went from 7 to 22% |
| Green Bay Packers | 70.3% | 51.8% | 4 | 10 | +6 | Not only best team in the division, they have the easiest schedule |
| Denver Broncos | 57.7% | 50.9% | 9 | 14 | +5 | Road defense allowed +7.3 more last season and +17 more after 2 games this season |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 40.8% | 47.0% | 22 | 27 | +5 | Love snatching defeat from the jaws of victory |
| New Orleans Saints | 40.0% | 45.7% | 24 | 29 | +5 | Jumped from last to 24th in pwr rank after 2 competitive losses |
| Houston Texans | 49.4% | 48.9% | 17 | 20 | +3 | TBD MNF |
| Indianapolis Colts | 43.2% | 47.5% | 21 | 24 | +3 | Our pre-season best AFC South bet is now the betting favorite in the division |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 70.7% | 54.0% | 3 | 5 | +2 | Almost seem to enjoy winning ugly |
| Washington Commanders | 58.8% | 52.5% | 7 | 8 | +1 | Unrealistic Jayden expectations and RB depth issues but overall they are fine |
| Tennessee Titans | 32.8% | 45.1% | 30 | 31 | +1 | Cam Ward can't play defense |
| Detroit Lions | 68.7% | 54.5% | 5 | 3 | -2 | Do 50% of what they did at home vs CHI on MNF at Baltimore and that'll be a big deal |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 54.5% | 52.2% | 11 | 9 | -2 | Hall of Fame names (Rodgers, Watt) who couldn't be more average |
| Los Angeles Rams | 52.7% | 51.2% | 14 | 12 | -2 | Matt Stafford loving Davante Adams as much as Rodgers used to (13 targets) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 47.7% | 50.2% | 19 | 17 | -2 | Undeservedly favored on road at SF in week 3 |
| New York Jets | 38.9% | 47.5% | 25 | 23 | -2 | Ridiculous that people didn't realize Fields' WK1 was his ceiling, not his average |
| New England Patriots | 36.2% | 47.1% | 29 | 26 | -3 | A must win in WK3 vs PIT to prove they aren't as bad as we say they are |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 52.0% | 53.6% | 15 | 6 | -9 | Burrow to Browning drop-off not as gigantic as you might think but oddsmakers killed them |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 37.9% | 49.6% | 27 | 18 | -9 | TBD MNF |
| Dallas Cowboys | 48.7% | 52.8% | 18 | 7 | -11 | Yesterday was a classic because they aren't much better than the Giants |
| Minnesota Vikings | 53.4% | 56.2% | 13 | 1 | -12 | Severe letdown by J.J. McCarthy… INTs are OK if they come with 3 TDs |
| Miami Dolphins | 38.3% | 51.0% | 26 | 13 | -13 | Playoff% dropped from 37% preseason to 10% and it's only going to get worse |
| Carolina Panthers | 30.9% | 50.3% | 32 | 16 | -16 | Wins will be tough to come by as the newly crowned worst team in the league |
| Cleveland Browns | 31.7% | 51.5% | 31 | 11 | -20 | You know you are bad when you outgain opponents by a solid margin and lose both |
| Chicago Bears | 40.2% | 55.0% | 23 | 2 | -21 | Think the '85 Bears could play better defense right now than the '25 Bears |
| New York Giants | 36.6% | 54.4% | 28 | 4 | -24 | Giants fans should want losses where young players look great, but still in Top 3 draft spot |
After the Monday Night Football double header 3 futures stand out to me the most.
Buffalo Bills Over 13.5 Wins (+115 FanDuel)
We are projecting just under 14 wins and you can get +$$$. We were super high on the Bills' futures in the pre-season because they had a weak division and all of their toughest games were at home (BAL, KC, CIN, TB, PHI). If we had them at nearly 13 wins before they beat Baltimore, before Miami and the Jets looked terrible, before the Chiefs started 0-2 and struggle to score, before Joe Burrow's injury, before Houston looks like a team that will be lucky to average 17 points, before the Patriots lost at home to the Raiders who looked horrible vs the Chargers, etc. etc. etc.
Los Angeles Chargers to Win AFC West (+110 BetMGM)
The Chargers were the best value to win the division before the season started because we predicted the steep decline for the Chiefs as they regressed to the mean in terms of winning one score games. We loved the Chargers' regular season success trending up.
If we liked the Chargers before they started 2-0 in the division, before Justin Herbert looked awesome again (and willing to run like a West Coast Josh Allen), before Quentin Johnston started making clutch catches, before the RB duo looked solid and before their defense has led the league in yards per play allowed, of course we are going to love them at +$$$ now.
Atlanta to Miss the Playoffs (-110 FanDuel)
They only make the playoffs in 21% of our simulations so our line for them to miss would be more like -380. We were EXTREMELY impressed by their rejuvenated pass rush vs Minnesota and their commitment to running the ball. They are ranked ahead of many teams originally expected to have better seasons.
But the loss to a 2-0 Tampa Bay team at home really hurts their chances of winning the division. We like them to win fairly easily in Week 3 vs Carolina which will steam the line to -150 or more so we want to get this price while we still can. They will need to likely get a WildCard to make the playoffs and while they took out a key Wildcard competitor in Minnesota the Lions (put up 52 in Wk2), Rams (2-0), and Commanders (if they fix their run game) seem like 'locks' to make the playoffs ahead of Atlanta.
Below is our Power Ranking sorted #1 to #32.
| PWR | RANKED #1 TO #32 | WINS | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | SUPER BOWL |
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 13.9 | 99.12% | 99.90% | 26.38% |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 11.4 | 73.85% | 94.52% | 14.46% |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11.8 | 77.71% | 92.41% | 14.37% |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 12.3 | 74.90% | 97.27% | 17.40% |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 10.0 | 13.01% | 64.08% | 5.77% |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9.0 | 18.76% | 56.18% | 1.88% |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | 9.1 | 17.35% | 46.79% | 1.70% |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10.6 | 82.74% | 86.59% | 3.50% |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 9.5 | 29.70% | 66.30% | 2.38% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 9.9 | 44.91% | 75.93% | 2.43% |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.6 | 12.57% | 50.83% | 1.40% |
| 12 | San Francisco 49ers | 10.6 | 44.50% | 77.21% | 2.22% |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 9.2 | 11.91% | 45.17% | 0.99% |
| 14 | Los Angeles Rams | 9.8 | 32.67% | 59.78% | 1.26% |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 8.8 | 13.49% | 50.59% | 0.87% |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | 10.23% | 31.23% | 0.46% |
| 17 | Houston Texans | 7.9 | 17.04% | 34.11% | 0.46% |
| 18 | Dallas Cowboys | 8.2 | 4.82% | 24.66% | 0.30% |
| 19 | Arizona Cardinals | 8.8 | 12.59% | 37.50% | 0.34% |
| 20 | Atlanta Falcons | 7.8 | 10.15% | 22.39% | 0.15% |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 9.9 | 62.81% | 78.69% | 0.74% |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.7 | 17.55% | 30.37% | 0.25% |
| 23 | Chicago Bears | 5.8 | 0.18% | 2.60% | 0.02% |
| 24 | New Orleans Saints | 6.8 | 6.51% | 10.66% | 0.05% |
| 25 | New York Jets | 6.3 | 0.11% | 7.51% | 0.03% |
| 26 | Miami Dolphins | 6.4 | 0.30% | 9.61% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 | 6.63% | 24.89% | 0.11% |
| 28 | New York Giants | 4.7 | 0.11% | 0.77% | 0.00% |
| 29 | New England Patriots | 6.9 | 0.47% | 14.06% | 0.05% |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 5.4 | 2.61% | 5.40% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 4.6 | 0.10% | 1.12% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | 4.5 | 0.60% | 0.91% | 0.00% |
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